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04/13/2021 Live Update

04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:51 am

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Looks like we have a price channel. The current rebound from channel lower boundary is strong, looking good for now.

Flat open, so likely just a range day.
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:19 am

realizedVolatility.jpg

Fun posting from Spot Gamma on twitter including comment that 30 % of S&P Gamma runs off at expiration on the 16th.
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:24 am

MES 06-21 (950 Tick) _ ES 06-21 (2000 Tick) 2021_04_13 (8_04_26 AM).jpg


I noticed that the legendary Ramp Express has been running for several days (I circled it on the chart). Now that even I see it we are probably done as an actionable strategy. :( :lol: :lol:
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:45 am

No new high from yesterday's high bears will get their day. sell sell sell :twisted:
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:49 am

Today will be the day if bears got 30 handles under their belt it's a game changer.
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:54 am

Futures Trader 71 commented in his morning broadcast today that the market needs a 60 point impulsive down day to reset it to neutral. The options pining Gurus are implying that next week things will open up and make that possible. AND there was that whale bet on increased volatility, so we will see. :?
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:00 am


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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:04 am

Same playbook,
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Mr. BachNut » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:42 am

The NYMO cycle is up.
We are testing the zero line this morning, which can be just a corrective pullback or can indicate that the cycle high is in and things are turning South.

Price has been tagging the upper keltner band, which is bullish.
There is a clear negative NYMO divergence with NYMO pulling back as price makes new highs.
This could be very bullish if NYMO bounces off the zero line and resumes climbing.
Alternatively, price could reverse and align with the falling NYMO.
That volumes are dropping as price makes new highs suggests bulls should be cautious.
Much of this week may be driven by the state of the options book into Friday's expiration.
So, next week may be clarifying.

I am long SPX and R2K.
SPX is in a risk free runner state. I have only gotten off one scale on R2K.
R2K has been feeling the NYMO. I am snugging up the stop on this one and anticipate closing it out as a modest loser.

NYMO 041321.jpg
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:58 am

MES 06-21 (950 Tick) _ ES 06-21 (2000 Tick) 2021_04_13 (9_54_10 AM).png


I like 4120.50 as a line in the sand because of the opening 10 minutes, then when that 10 point impulsive wave hit it generated a red bar. I have to say a whole lot of matching high twin tower bar pairs this morning. Making me think that magic 4150 is ging to be hard to reach.
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Mr. BachNut » Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:01 am

I forgot to mention we now have a whole bunch of open gaps below now to serve as potential targets when the next down cycle arrives. :mrgreen:
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby JFR » Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:49 am

ES daily. Moving sideways in a base. At the top. Well above the EMA 20.


2021-04-13_08-47-53.png
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby JFR » Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:50 am

ES 5 minutes. Very tight base for almost 2 hours.
Last edited by JFR on Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:52 am

Semis test the impossible: a quad bottom
15 min
413semis.png.jpg
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby JFR » Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:58 am

Dow 30. More red than green. AAPL at the top. Who's that? Ha ha IBM, JNJ and NKE at the bottom.


2021-04-13_08-55-56.png
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:03 pm

OLD NEWS, from my favorite Morgan Stanley guy:
4/11/21 MS, Wilson: the breakdown of small caps and cyclicals may be an early warning sign that the actual reopening of the economy will be more difficult.
The underperformance in IPOs [use symbol IPO] signals that the Fed’s excessive liquidity is finally being overwhelmed by supply. When new issues underperform this much, it’s generally a leading indicator that equity markets will struggle more broadly. 
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:19 pm

RISK BAROMETER:
They need to be buying the 100-highest beta stocks, and the recent IPOs and the smalls in order for this to be “risk-on”.
They are not buying the risky stuff, and this is not a “risk-on” profile
413risk off.png.jpg
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:20 pm


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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:22 pm

Watching the triangle for a possible smalls short....
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Re: 04/13/2021 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:22 pm

TZA is the inverse smalls ETF....
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