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04/17/2021 Weekend Update

04/17/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:40 pm

Up 4 weeks in a row the next week has 67% chances to close up and 82% chances to make a higher high.

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Re: 04/17/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:35 pm

Learn basics of volume profile for free in an hour. This is the tape so you can even play back fast.
https://convergenttrading.com/key-vp-components/
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Re: 04/17/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:50 am

$AAII Bull - $AAII Bear down a notch but still far more bulls than bears.

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Re: 04/17/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:12 pm

Al Brooks now sees pullback within the next 5 weeks. The last week he said the pullback would start in April so a little bit changes.

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Re: 04/17/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:37 pm

RECAP OF THE WEEK OF 4/12:
GS posted record profit …
JPM revenue climbing a whopping 25% … but weak loan demand.
WFC’s net interest income dropped a whopping 22%, and the CEO warned that low rates would continue to be a drag on earnings….
BAC beat and they released loan loss reserves as fewer consumers were expected to default on loans….
MS beat …
Citigroup beat. C also said it's shuttering retail banking operations in 13 countries across Asia and parts of Europe. 
Bank stock prices were mixed; this is one week: [Recall the too-big-to-fail banks are: JPM, BAC, GS, C, MS]
417banks week.png.jpg


4/15 March retail sales soared 9.8%, well above estimates for a 6.1% increase. 
4/14 CPI for March: 1.6% (vs expected 1.5%) ...YOY 2.6% rise (expected 2.5%) ...rising energy prices were a major contributor (gasoline prices up 22.5% YOY)… used car/trucks and food were both up 3+% YOY
4/15 Initial Jobless Claims were 576,000 last week, much lower than expectations for 710,000 new filings. That was easily the lowest since the early days of the pandemic and represented a sharp decline from the previous week's upwardly revised 769,000 total.
4/16  After a downwardly-revised 10.3% plunge in February, Housing Starts spiked 19.4% MoM in March (better than the +13.4% MoM expected).
After an upwardly-revised 8.8% drop in February, Building Permits jumped 2.7% MoM (modestly better than the +1.7% expected)
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Re: 04/17/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:53 pm

[Add]
4/16  Preliminary April data from UMich Sentiment Survey [which is one of the "Ten Leading Indicators"] fell short of expectations… While the headline print rose from 84.9 to 86.5 (pandemic highs), it fell far short of the 89.0 expectation. Additionally, while current conditions jumped from 93.0 to 97.2, the expectations (hope) index was flat at 79…. half of all consumers expected declines in unemployment, the highest level ever recorded…. perhaps most importantly, it would appear an inflationary sentiment is building among Americans... [Bloomberg]

4/16 Interesting comments on inflation:
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/econ ... you-see-it
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Re: 04/17/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Trades w 2 Cats » Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:22 pm

John Mauldin's weekly free letter this week he uses the metaphor of a Tsunami for the market. He cites Doug Kass showing how the cash going into funds since November was equal to the amount going in over the last 12 years or so. Of course he wants you to see this as retail running out into the retreating ocean to pick up fish not realizing that they are about to be destroyed.

I see this as the ultimate triumph of the Greenspan era at the Fed. They have finally forced Ma and Pa Kettle back into the market. Mauldin does cite Bob Farrell's rule about the public buying the most at the top.

One thing I am sure of is human nature does not change. This market is different from the past and it will end in a different way but the patterns are guided by human nature so they are always the same.

Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan) talks about systems that have constant ups and downs that relive pressure compared to systems where those small movements are repressed allowing internal pressure to grow until they explode. That is the trap the central bankers have put themselves into. Returning to market setting rates guarantees a depression. But continuing with rate repression and extreme money printing will result in a world wide Zimbabwe. I have not forgotten that Zimbabwe frequently has the highest nominal annual returns on stocks. More to the point the Fed is once again talking about slowing the presses. The Biden administration stimulus plans are not gaining traction in Congress. At some point Ma and Pa Kettle are going to change their minds and pull their money out of Cathy Woods new fund. That will be the Aha moment.
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Re: 04/17/2021 Weekend Update

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:56 pm

Extreme anything is bad. Extreme optimism or pessimism, permabull or permabear, far left or far right in politics. BAD dude. This is when TA comes in and help us to see a coming changes and act accordingly. Thanks to Trades w 2 Cats to keep bring up Volume profile to this forum . Monkey Bars have been good tools in TOS, with Volume profile study and market profile combined or you can set it up just to show Volume profile. The profile analysis have helped me to see thing a little bit more different in term of supports and resistances in intraday trading. from my experience no single analysis is completed in TA world. All that come down to "It is what it is" analysis which takes thing as you see in front of you at the particular moment.
For now market is Bubliciously overbought in TA term, irrational exuberance come to mind, again market will not just fold if the peak reversal is actually here, TA will guide us, down trend confirmed or not for the trend to end. we still get plenty of time for longer term trade. short term trade is all about speed. lets look at my daily trading plan:
Trend is up. dips will be bought, a common knowledge.
Previous HOD/LOD, POC, LVN (included overnight session) if there is more than two distribution profiles, and special MA (equivalence of 5 DMA). My Philosophy is simple, each day there is Hi and Lo, everything else is in between. :D each day trading plan is depend on previous day price actions. here's my plan for Monday. Each morning opening price is key give away from where we were stand in the day before. The profile is single distribution, Balanced, P shape, closed right on POC, sideways range day in another words on Friday. key objective is to BUY LOD or SELL HOD on the next day, easy stuff right? Buy Lo, Sell Hi. :lol: Peace!
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Re: 04/17/2021 Weekend Update

Postby QED » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:13 pm

.
FYI: $NDXA50R-$NAA50R is > 40! :shock:

[@ StockCharts: Do your own research.]

.
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Re: 04/17/2021 Weekend Update

Postby JFR » Sun Apr 18, 2021 2:18 am

We've got some longer posts here this weekend. I will blame that for getting me going. Ha ha

Going back decades, I studied Economics. From that time I ''discovered'' fundamental analysis (P/E, Debt/Equity, ROE, Income per Share, Book Value, etc.), which I still use for value investing. The Internet got going, and I gravitated to technical analysis. First indicator that got my attention and showed me something --> Slow Sto, about 25 years ago. Now I look briefly at economic and finance news, but mostly get my fix for that on here, as in what is current. OK I read some articles here and there. But I am about 95% technical now. It's all in the charts.

IMO all technical analysis methods have merit. Do we need to use them all? No. I don't use Elliott Wave, nor Gann, nor Market Profile, nor Volume Profile. Indicators I respect and have used but no longer use extensively include ADX, CCI, Chaikin, OBV, RSI, W%R and Heikin-Ashi charts. All good but it can get redundant. Ones I still use, not all together, are Bollinger Bands, Volume by Price, EMAs, SAR, Pivots (and different levels of support and resistance, including Fibonacci and trendlines), MACD, Slope, Slow Sto, TSI, and of course Volume. I like CandleSticks, and the Elder Impulse System. I like Renko and 3 Line Break charts. That is plenty.

For setups I use variations of the basics: pullbacks, breakouts, fades, turns and gaps. I scalp ES, NQ and YM. I day trade stocks, including the Dow 30. I swing trade stocks, ETFs and sometimes forex.

The only options I trade are uncovered puts, selling as a value play for stocks I am interested in buying.

I still like big, slow clunky PnF for the bigger picture, and it can be very useful all the way down to 1 minute charts and below (20 ticks, 10 ticks). It is a slow moving freighter, but with huge momentum.

All of this leading to ... SPY daily, Point and Figure.

By the way, crash, or big correction, coming? Of course. And we will see it in the charts, early.


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