Cobra's Market View

I don't know how to read today's pattern: Very first down day on volume surge, bearish, but very long lower shadow, bullish. So Doji plus volume surge could mean either distribution or accumulation, we'll need see tomorrow. As usual bulls aggressively bought every DENT (not even a dip) which at certain point would suddenly stop working and I kind FEEL tomorrow is the time, let's see.

Proved again it's right not to trust bears even a seemingly downtrend day in the morning.
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DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

• My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.

• Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.

• Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

On the 2nd thought, we had 4 days of pullback (although just a dent but it's a pullback, cannot be denied) so a volume surge today should mean a sell exhaustion therefore the pullback might be over today. I was too bear biased to admit so in the previous post. This 2nd thought might be wrong as I still FEEL there'd be a surprise tomorrow, but right or wrong, I should interpret what the chart says without a bias: The chart does look favoring bulls, for now.

SPY 15. Some roller coaster excitement early in the trading day. Pretty good bounce back. Ultimately down only .52%. No doubt the move down got the attention of mutual funds and some grandmas, who might watch the markets and their investments closely. No offence to smart grandmas.

SPY daily. Personally I would not mind seeing market value drop back to the $390-$395 range of March, which would allow us another nice move up, as well as the move down, of course. Flat for two weeks plus, with a hammer sitting on the EMA 20, and a series of dojis before that. Breakout coming. Pressure both ways.

JFR wrote:SPY daily. Personally I would not mind seeing market value drop back to the $390-$395 range of March, which would allow us another nice move up, as well as the move down, of course. Flat for two weeks plus, with a hammer sitting on the EMA 20, and a series of dojis before that. Breakout coming. Pressure both ways.

2021-05-04_15-24-54.png

Hmm, seems a reasonable target there and a good support.

[quote="Cobra"]I don't know how to read today's pattern: Very first down day on volume surge, bearish, but very long lower shadow, bullish. So Doji plus volume surge could mean either distribution or accumulation, we'll need see tomorrow. As usual bulls aggressively bought every DENT (not even a dip) which at certain point would suddenly stop working and I kind FEEL tomorrow is the time, let's see.

This 100%, I don't know if I am too bearish but this describes exactly what I am looking at, seems like it should dump overnight and into the morning but probably means rally to new highs.

Cobra wrote:

JFR wrote:SPY daily. Personally I would not mind seeing market value drop back to the $390-$395 range of March, which would allow us another nice move up, as well as the move down, of course. Flat for two weeks plus, with a hammer sitting on the EMA 20, and a series of dojis before that. Breakout coming. Pressure both ways.

2021-05-04_15-24-54.png

Hmm, seems a reasonable target there and a good support.

True that.