Cobra's Market View

dated 5/11/21 YESTERDAY:
With all the negative news on oil (pipeline hack, shortage of qualified drivers)
Here's bull:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/H ... n-Oil.html

Nasdaq has received approval from the SEC to launch options on its Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VOLQ).
... Nasdaq said it plans to launch later this year.
https://www.thetradenews.com/nasdaq-get ... x-options/

The NYMO cycle is down.
The last up cycle, which topped on 4/26, was kind of puny lasting only four days.
While this down cycle has been going for awhile, it has spent much of the time coiling around the zero line.
This is essentially corrective, neutral, non-trending behavior.
A clean, sizeable downthrust only began yesterday, with price responding in kind.
There is a ways to go before NYMO reaches the turn zone. So, that is potential bear fuel if you will.
Given where NYMO is now, however, a corrective bounce to the zero line is also on the menu.

Price has been struggling to hang onto the upper keltner band for awhile, but appears to have let go setting new lows for the month so far.
The middle keltner beckons now as does a stranded benchmark at SPX 4086.23.
We have a stack of open gaps below to serve as targets.
However, today's up gap at SPX 4188.43 may want to close before getting down to business.
We shall see. I don't know what will happen.

I am flat. A short setup for SPX is percolating but needs more time and price action to go live.
I should be short R2K with two profit scales in the bank and a runner position status, but I totally botched the entry in an unforced error.
The good thing about trading mistakes (provided they don't kill your account or cost a lot) is that, after a brief period of feeling stupid, you let them go and forget about them.

FWIW
Twitter handle: GameDevPaidMe
is exposing the previously secretive salaries that game developers make

Bulls are having a hard time passing through this MA, need to do it fast or sellers will pile back in.

SPX Cash, Auction action, failed breakout down test the LOW, from here either back up to fill the gap or breakdown to confirm trend change, forming the major Top, Bulls will fight tooth and nail to stay up inside this range where bears the only way to win is to have new LL from here.

Breakout would confirm the low was in. Key time.

few hours ago:
Goldman' explained Monday's tech rout: "Info Tech stocks were net sold for a 10th straight day, driven by equal $ amount of long sales and short sales."
The GS Prime book is now U/W [underweight] Info Tech stocks by -3.7%, the lowest level since early December.
zh: What does this mean? Well, so far the hedge fund pile up in bearish tech positions has worked. But after yesterday's oversubscribed $18.5BN bond offering by Amazon, which will be used to fund buybacks, and is already in process of buying back AMZN stock pushing it from down 2% to up 1% in early trading...
zh: ... we expect a cascade of short covering... to be triggered any moment as hedge funds retreat facing the relentless Goldman buyback desk, sending the NASDAQ green in very short notice.

This is a critical juncture. bottom of Megaphone and mid channel support. Do or Die for both sides.

MA support failed to support will be a sign that bulls are out of juice, I will sit out if failed. and may be chase down with the bears. will see, no failure for bulls.

ES, 5 min, this could turn out to be a kiss of death. two sell swing setup.

Now you see where I am at, showing my world map down to downtown Buford, Wyoming. Peace!

DIVERGENCE:
VIX lower highs
but the put equivalent ETF (VXX) is higher lows
I think that's a bearish divergence (bear spy) , but I'm not sure

last sell for me. chasiiiinnng.

Breakout would be more likely if touches the upper blue line again.

Some people wait hours to fill up their gas tanks.
Emergency declarations have been issued in 17 states and DC due to fuel shortages stemming from the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack. 
The emergency declaration covers Alabama, Arkansas, D.C., Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. 

SPX daily candle turned from bear to hammer and now a doji atm
As long as she is still under 20ma, it’s just a dead cat bounce
aka squeeze
[Classic Al Brooks, paraphrased: "It's either a trend candle or a doji. Period.]