Cobra's Market View

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The pullback overnight looks like a bull flag for now so probably will be bought upon open.

Gap down but within the Friday's range so likely it's just a range day.

SPY 15. Down a bit from the close. Relatively quiet.

Dow 30. CAT up. MSFT down. ''All's quiet ...'' So far.

Got some stuff to do. Back later.

It's the bear's last chance to make a downtrend day here. Break above EMA20 then the low might be in for today, it'd be a range day at the best for bears. My guess is bears are over.

Waiting for something to happen.

Now breakdown is more likely.

Going for the 4th touch, bears have the ball, will they score?

Today is the deadline for 13F filings … one filing was of particular interest, that of Scion Asset Management's Michael "Big Short" Burry. And boy were there surprises.
First, there is not even a trace of Burry's previous interest in GME or any other "Reddit" stocks: it's safe to assume that all profits there were monetized long ago.
Turning to Burry's new positions in the first quarter... we find quite a few surprises, starting with a massive Put position in Tesla, where Burry has purchased puts covering some 800,100 TSLA shares, whose notional equivalent value is just over $530 Million, making it not only his biggest position but also roughly equivalent to 40% of his entire portfolio in nominal terms.
The next thing that jumps out is Burry's substantial bullish bet on Alphabet and Facebook, where Scion now owns a little over $160 million in Call premium, or an equivalent of 80,000 shares of GOOGL and 550,000 shares of FB.
Plus, aggressive positioning for a surge in inflation ...betting on a surge in Treasury yields.
[source: 13F Filing via zh]

target

Bulls tried twice, all failed (red arrows), so the current breakdown might be sharp because those who bought in the previous 2 tires may have to cut losses.

Looks like Bears could have a channel. Needs a third point on the upper line.

Still hanging on the cliff, need to see new LL today for the fall, or tomorrow bears will have to try again. anyways, the line is clear.

Channel breakout to th top but market isn't going anywhere.

Cash SPX Fib, inside day, bear doesn't have to do much, this is a fearful market.

Monday suppose to be boring (checked)
Monday suppose to gaped up on light volume from Sunday night classic pump and stay flat all day the next day ( Un-Checked) this tells weak sauce, bulls are about to run out of juice.

Another tell tale on a daily classical TA. A Bullish Harami dead cat bonce from lower BB to mid Band was good sign for bulls, but a rejection to regain the mid band it's >70% chance that LL is to be expected at the minimum.

Test the previous high. I have no idea what the market is doing. Maybe the low was in for today?

ES, a good bye kiss, sell with no stop, Ma, look, no hands.

Goldman, Morgan etc get to book profits on options premium Wednesday. You all saw Goldman's new scenario's released this weekend and picked up at the evil site. So for sure they will be steering the market today and tomorrow. End of the week the big funds that are nervous could be hedging by selling the futures.