05/20/2021 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

Total put/call >1 = Panic level. Bottom here or a start of Bear Market. highest R/R ratio on both sides.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Twitter comment this is 3rd third Thursday in a row where the algo's run it up. Last two Fridays also, then a dump on Monday. A low volume day with no expected news events. Perfect for some big funds to squeeze the new shorts.

[Al_Dente]

Gamma stuff, plus our buddy Charlie McElligott, plus OPEX tomorrow.
SpotGamma: "We’d look at any rally as a function of “short covering” vs real buying which could lead to an air pocket into next week."
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gamma ... to+zero%29

[BullBear52x]

Cobra, nice call on Bump and Run. this is good enough gain for it.

[Cobra]

It was a successful bump and run pattern. Now let's see how the rebound goes first.

[Al_Dente]

CLUE:
check your 5minute chart on HYG junk
P-Bar for "risk-on"

[Al_Dente]

Nomura's McElligott writes in his morning notes, there is some incrementally “bullish” stuff happening, and the potential for a marketwide
"crash up" is growing
... the biggest reason why the next major move is likely higher, is because everyone is hedged for a crash. As the Nomura strategist notes, the ..."economic reopening/renormalization" theme stays super-strong, and can be seen in the data ...

.. McElligott cautions that the longer we go with no plain vanilla crash, and especially with rates remaining calm and the market’s perceived belief in “a few more months” before Fed would be forced to begin altering the messaging / pivoting towards firming “taper” language, "the path of least resistance locally here is higher ..."

[Al_Dente]

CLUE:
check your 5minute chart on HYG junk
P-Bar for "risk-on"

[add: same on JNK]
both were good prints, not a misprint

[BullBear52x]

Not just fearful but weak momentum also. risk on? kidding me?

[BullBear52x]

$VVIX and $CPC need to cool down before bulls can sleep well.

[Al_Dente]

spy resistance at the gray gap, stop at the little pink bullish-island gap
qqq box breakout, see cyan target, stop if/when price can't hold the breakout

[Trades w 2 Cats]

I will buy into risk on if this move continues into next week. For now I trust the numbers that say a low volume short squeeze going into options expiration. 1/3 of the SPX pinning goes away and over 1/2 for the smalls and the tech index. I just don't trust the bulls with the Fed clamping down on money center loans to Family Office funds. Second problem most Robin Hood traders already have their $1,400 so it is probably deployed. Third problem billions in IPO lock ups expiring in tech land. Fourth and biggest, money supply growth has slowed down.

As the songs go "First I look at da purse" or "show me the money".

[BullBear52x]

Bulls are hanging on, of course trader can counter trend up/down at any point. to call this bullish is not in my book.

[Al_Dente]

THE FOUR HORSEMEN are all below their 5dma (pink) but there are double-bottoms and boxes to guide us

[BullBear52x]

Here is a simpleton on risk on. one more day of push up at the least for a bullish crossed.

[Al_Dente]

A view from the short side
SHORTS
daily

[BullBear52x]

ES and SPX are the same on No man's land. Peace!

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:30 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2021/05 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2021/05 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Friday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449397

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449397