Cobra's Market View

Down 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 64% chances to close up.

WEEKEND STUDY:
http://thepatternsite.com/visualcpindex.html#1-B

This morning's 5am Pacific PBar had predictive powers:

SPY daily. PnF. No change on the slow-moving ocean tanker. Trend up. Pullback. Trying to resume the up move.

Al Brooks: the chances of a breakout on the upside is slightly higher.

Cobra, what video game are you playing this weekend?? LOL!

Weekend Wall Street.

The 50 DMA has been holding the market up. It looks like the MACD is trying to go positive. Is that enough to push the market to new highs? Hopefully I'll let price tell me and not front run this by much! LOL!

[caveat: I don’t follow this Index because it’s proprietary and I can’t chart it. But nearly EVERYBODY else follows it.]

“Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index Turns Red For First Time In A Year”
The Index provides a view into the strength of the economic recovery. 

zh: Going red isn't a terrible thing for the surprise index, neither does it mean the recovery is falling off a cliff - all it suggests is that data points are no longer beating forecasters' estimates to the upside…. the strength of the recovery appears to be slowing. .. So the Fed communicating it may start tapering just as economic data points are no longer beating to the upside could be a ... sign of trouble ahead, one where equity valuations might adjust for a slowing real economy...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/citi- ... to+zero%29

Interesting to compare a few high-yield competitors on a YEAR-TO-DATE performance chart.
Note that SPY is up +11.35% YTD … and HYG (the gorilla junk ETF) is only up +1.19% … while the best here (HIPS, black) is up +17.76%

Comparing the yields (all numbers from finviz):
HIPS 9.09% (not a typo)
VTA 7.75%
BGB 6.28%
BXMX 6.1%
HYG 4.87%

[Caveat: as with all performance charts, when you change the time frame you get a different picture. For example: they all crashed bad in the Feb/Mar SPY rout of 2020, so good STOPS are ESSENTIAL. This is not your grandpa’s buy-and-hold.]

Anyhoooo, I can’t figure why HYG (in gold) is so popular given the numbers … it being the most liquid junk on the planet isn’t good enough for me.
Also, why is HIPS (in black) so thin (low volume) when it is cleary the better performer and yielder ? [btw: HIPS correlates positively with SPY and HYG. But the HIPS Expense Ratio is 1.27% which is too high; notheless its numbers are clearly superior].

$AAII Bull - $AAII Bear up a little bit, not saying much.

Just FYI:
This chart shows the FOMC dates (vertical lines)
along with the performance of equities and commodity-ish ETFs

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859