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05/29/2021 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Up 1 week, 76% chances higher high ahead the next week, so bulls should be fine holding positions over the weekend.
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Cobra
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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

$AAII Bull - $AAII Bear almost no change.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

SECTORS
YTD
SECTOR ytd 529.png.jpg
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

This SentimenTrader post is showing up all over the net:
"Over the past month, about when stocks started to go into a holding pattern, the correlation in daily changes between the VIX "fear gauge" and the yield on 10-year Treasury notes skyrocketed to the highest level since 1999.
"... Yields drove investors' expectations for volatility throughout much of the 1990s. During that time, when the correlation got to as high a level as it's at now, the S&P showed weak short-term returns but good medium- to long-term ones.
https://sentimentrader.com/blog/fear-ov ... ince-1999/
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

I get a bull signal, not bear, when I try to replicate SentimenTrader’s VIX correlation chart
When correlation got this high, SPX moved up (see green arrows/boxes).
(The dashed-vertical lines are keyed to the interim highs and lows on SPX price.)
Maybe I’m doing it wrong ?
Anyway, in my book, a breach of 20dma is still the “better” signaler, even though it’s “late”
529vix corr.png.jpg
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

SKEW [how many folks are buying OTM puts; a measure of how cheap/expensive it is to add portfolio protection; right now it's expensive].
“...we’re seeing demand for those out-of-the-money puts… actually at the highest level of the year...” [@CBOE]
SKEW530.png.jpg
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Cobra
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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

After a few consecutive up months a doji means the strength between bulls and bears are equal therefore finally bears have 50% in June.
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