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05/29/2021 Weekend Update

05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri May 28, 2021 5:14 pm

Up 1 week, 76% chances higher high ahead the next week, so bulls should be fine holding positions over the weekend.

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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Sat May 29, 2021 9:42 am

$AAII Bull - $AAII Bear almost no change.

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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat May 29, 2021 1:14 pm

SECTORS
YTD
SECTOR ytd 529.png.jpg
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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat May 29, 2021 2:41 pm

This SentimenTrader post is showing up all over the net:
"Over the past month, about when stocks started to go into a holding pattern, the correlation in daily changes between the VIX "fear gauge" and the yield on 10-year Treasury notes skyrocketed to the highest level since 1999.
"... Yields drove investors' expectations for volatility throughout much of the 1990s. During that time, when the correlation got to as high a level as it's at now, the S&P showed weak short-term returns but good medium- to long-term ones.
https://sentimentrader.com/blog/fear-ov ... ince-1999/
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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat May 29, 2021 3:24 pm

I get a bull signal, not bear, when I try to replicate SentimenTrader’s VIX correlation chart
When correlation got this high, SPX moved up (see green arrows/boxes).
(The dashed-vertical lines are keyed to the interim highs and lows on SPX price.)
Maybe I’m doing it wrong ?
Anyway, in my book, a breach of 20dma is still the “better” signaler, even though it’s “late”
529vix corr.png.jpg
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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sun May 30, 2021 5:03 pm

SKEW [how many folks are buying OTM puts; a measure of how cheap/expensive it is to add portfolio protection; right now it's expensive].
“...we’re seeing demand for those out-of-the-money puts… actually at the highest level of the year...” [@CBOE]

SKEW530.png.jpg
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Re: 05/29/2021 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Mon May 31, 2021 10:11 am

After a few consecutive up months a doji means the strength between bulls and bears are equal therefore finally bears have 50% in June.
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