Cobra's Market View

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Maybe we have a price channel here?

Flat open so likely a boring range day until the roller coaster show at 2 pm.

SPY 15. "All quiet ... "

ES daily. The bulls are not giving up. But the market has been stuck in neutral, essentially, for two months. The bears are getting their shots in too. If not for the bears taking profits and short selling, I expect the market would be on a slow grind up.

Some of the Dow are off to a good start.

DIA and IWM down. QQQ up. SPY down a bit and chopping.

Alternatives.

IAU and SPYV down. SPYG and TLT up. We're all over the map today.

Back later ...

Yesterday, SKEW hit an all-time-high (ATH)
It has never been more expensive to buy out-of-the-money (OTM) puts [per CBOE]

SKEW doesn’t give an exact signal. Examples of the last couple SKEW highs:
1) July/Aug/Sept 2018: the market waited until October to drop.
2) Dec 2019: the covid drop didn’t start until Feb 2020

THE FOUR HORSEMEN update
Daily, 20ema, RSI-5

Maybe the range low before the roller coast show was in. If bulls are able to touch the blue line above then breakout would be more likely.

Maybe the pullback is targeting the yesterday's low.

So a drop into FOMC means a pop after?

at least there is movement. it's still alive!!!

HUMOR BREAK, true story:
Thousands call for Jeff Bezos to be denied re-entry to Earth after his upcoming space launch on July 20
10,000 folks have signed the petition so far

Very clean TA so far, no surprise yet.

Down side eyeing 4192ish.

Consolidation here means breakdown is more likely so bulls need rebound as soon as possible.

Why I think we will see lower price before higher price. sideways to down.

AAPL and TSLA are the floaters for the index.