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06/19/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2021 5:10 pm
by Cobra
Down 1 week, the next week has 61% chances to close up.

Re: 06/19/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:44 am
by Al_Dente
Clean Energy has been down since January, now RUN is on a breakout. See RUN (pink, solar)
On Wednesday, 6/16/21, MS upped its price target on RUN to $91 from $86. Short interest was 16.9%, or nearly six days' worth of pent-up buying power. In other words, the security looked ripe for a short squeeze.
Since Wednesday, RUN has been running.
Hourly performance chart

619run.png.jpg

Re: 06/19/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 1:25 pm
by Trades w 2 Cats
Everybody's (well most of us) favorite trading coach Dr Brett Steenbarger is kicking off a new series. If I am apply the Readers Digest condensed books version to his intro post https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/ you need to go fishing where the fish are biting. Could be a fun ride.

Re: 06/19/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2021 3:21 pm
by Al_Dente
One red week does not make a bear market
LONG TERM, weekly chart
Since last April/May when the “recovery” started, the WEEKLY chart has been long.
Looking back to the Covid crash starting in Feb 2020, using the default stochastics (14/3), long term folks were told to exit (red arrows), which saved them at least 1,000+ SPX points of the drop (depending on their exit price). The challenge was WHEN to get back in LONG.
Note: even the four-week pullback (flag) last September couldn’t turn the stochastics down below its 50 line.
Let’s say that long-termers will again wait until price pierces the 10/20/30 EMAs... they would sell just below circa 4000 (but that is a moving target as the EMAs will change).

619week.png.jpg

Re: 06/19/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:08 pm
by Cobra
$AAII bull - $AAII bear, no changes.

Re: 06/19/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:17 pm
by Cobra
Al Brooks give 40% chances of a trend reversal (higher high double top reversal), a strong bear follow through in the next couple of weeks is needed to confirm the reversal. Right now still too early to say.

Re: 06/19/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:18 pm
by Cobra
My experiences: the higher high double top (Al calls higher high major trend reversal) has less than 30% chances GENERALLY, so again the next week is the key.

Re: 06/19/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:49 pm
by JFR
SPY daily. PnF. No turn. No bear trend, as of yet.


Screenshot_20210620_143628.jpg

Re: 06/19/2021 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:32 pm
by Al_Dente
The dow and the transports have confirmed the SPX higher highs all year, until this month when they both printed negative divergences.
It would be better for the bulls if the dow and the transports could regain their 50ma (red) and push higher, otherwise …..……...
620fifty ma.png.jpg

Summary:
WHO IS ABOVE 50ma:
spx still above 50ma; testing it
ndx way above 50ma
healthcare above 50ma

WHO IS BELOW 50ma:
indu below 50ma
tran below 50ma
discretionary (XLY) is sitting on 50ma; equal-weight discretionary (RCD) is below 50ma
Three Horsemen (banks, industrials, materials) are below 50ma (oil is still above 50ma)