Cobra's Market View

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The pullback probably will be bought if not already being bought. May test the all time high.

Small gap up so likely just a range day.

The NYMO cycle is Down.
NYMO is negative and making its way up to the zero line.
This could simply be a corrective bounce or the cycle low is in and an up cycle will be confirmed once NYMO turns positive.
Time will tell.

Price, in spite of negative NYMO, is just a few handles away from a new ATH.
I imagine there is a collection of stops waiting to be harvested.
Perhaps after a capitulative high, we will see if folks really want to buy up here.
Powell continues to pledge easy money forever, but the bull march seems more like a trudge than a charge lately.

We have a stack of nine potential gap targets below. (10 if today's doesn't close during the session.)
The keltner band continues to narrow, which can set the stage for a big move down the road.
It has been a while since the upper keltner has been tagged to confirm the big bull trend.

I am flat SPX and short R2K.
I did put on an SPX short, but it was BE stopped after two profit scales.
I managed to get one profit unit scaled on the R2K but this remains a risk position and is drawing down at the moment.
Given negative NYMO, a reversal in price could get me short SPX again.
On the other hand, I have long setups starting to take form.
As usual, I haven't a clue what will happen.

The pullback probably means it's just a range day.

SPY 15. Drifting along. Slow train to nowhere.

ES daily. Between the EMA 20 and resistance. Near the top.

Alternatives. DBC, IAU, USO up. UUP down a bit.

sell day today for me.

Always sell 2x top working so far, the question is how much will the bears get today?

spy testing possible double top
rsp not
indu not
tran not
qqq ATH

some fangs
daily 20/50

Bears need to see LL from here, a down trend day is possible if so.

Auction houses theory, failed breakout, the lower range should be tested. but that is a lot, crazy market, anything is possible. for now I just looking at Fib levels.

four horsemen update, hourly

AutoChartist. AUDUSD. 30 min. Without prejudice or advice.

Back later.

JFR wrote:AutoChartist. AUDUSD. 30 min. Without prejudice or advice.

We use to look at the strength of the Aussie and Yen against each other. If the yen was going up, risk off. If the Aussie was strengthening, risk on!

te_fern wrote:

JFR wrote:AutoChartist. AUDUSD. 30 min. Without prejudice or advice.

We use to look at the strength of the Aussie and Yen against each other. If the yen was going up, risk off. If the Aussie was strengthening, risk on!

Hey. I think you know I mostly look at the charts. Ha ha.

Carry trade. Risk on/off. Et cetera. Much more vague in terms of trading. Trade what you see (charts). For example, I did not try to look at the dynamics behind the AUDUSD chart.

short term yield, 1, 2, 3, and 6 month are all have the same look, risk off back in the old day when no one can corner the market. it's different this time ya no?

"New NSCC Rule Change Poised to End the Short Squeeze Saga"
https://tokenist.com/new-nscc-rule-chan ... eeze-saga/