Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

07/21/2021 Market Recap

Post Reply
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58337
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

07/21/2021 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

If the past pattern repeats tomorrow should be a small red, let's see.

Not a bad follow through but not perfect either. Compare the green circle and blue circle in the past you can see the differences: The green circle rebound was 2 days rebound and totally recovered the previous 2 days' losses therefore it's up and up thereafter while the blue circle case the 2 days rebound failed to recover the previous 2 days losses, so there's a revisit of the low later. Not necessarily bearish, just explain why not perfect, so I'm not sure whether we'll go directly to a new all time high from here yet.
SmallRedTomorrow.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58337
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 07/21/2021 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

4.png
Breakout patterns several times today, need a little bull bias in order not to call double top though.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4700&p=296230#p296230
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4700&p=296240#p296240


DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.
  • My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.
  • Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.
  • Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58337
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 07/21/2021 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

You might say, the green circle and blue circle case are different, blue circle case was down huge in 2 days therefore hard to recover all in 2 days. Well, that's actually the logic behind the differences: The price move has inertia too, if the selling is strong, rarely the down is just 1 legged. In the green circle case, the selling wasn't strong enough to justify a 2nd leg down.

The complication we're facing now is: Our current case, the selling was stronger than the green circle case but weaker than the blue circle case so whether there'll be another leg down, really it's hard to say this time. I personally think a 2nd leg down may have a little bit better chances than go directly up to the all time high from here.

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Post Reply