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09/11/2021 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Down 1 week, the next week has 61% chances to close up.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

HUGE block of selling in the last hour Friday
If that’s not exhaustion selling it’s near-exhaustion selling
Last time that happened was Aug 18… the next day went down before it bounced
Looks like the magnet target here is a test of last month’s gap (gray bar)

... see revised chart...
Last edited by Al_Dente on Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Trades w 2 Cats »

Is the case for Red September the real deal or is it just a gambit to draw out bear funds for a slingshot higher in October?

The usual suspects are beating the drum for a September sell off. ZeroHedge laid out the points yesterday and then today John Malden jumped on the band wagon. I can't argue with their thesis that the party is over because the stimulus punch bowl is empty. They are not pointing out what has happened in China which has been providing credit for the planet in the past. I would speculate that if they haven't the Wall Street Journal will be doing the same making it the official view.

The one mistake they are all making is assuming Nancy Pelosi can not pull this off at the end of the month. A short now is a bet that she will not salvage a dime of the two proposed stimey bills. There is one thing we have seen over the last several years, never assume the politicians will turn down a big spending bill larded with goodies for their own constituents.

My forecast is we do have that drop for all the published reasons. But then as always Pelosi gets something through and the market turns on a dime. At that point the record level of buyback cash could add to the squeeze frenzy and up we go like a rocket carrying a billionaire. Never forget the majority of buybacks are handled by a desk at (of course) Goldman Sacks.

Next year could easily be a different story. The new stimey will take a long time to trickle out and it won't be by helicopter direct to the people. We already know Christmas sales will be terrible. First quarter earnings should be back to trend from 2019 at best (John Malden). Softbank is apparently out of the needed cash to keep manipulating the tech titans so that final market prop will be rolling over. That is when Wall Street will start to recognize that we have not escaped the Japanese trap and we too are locked into low growth low rate government controlled stagnation.
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Cobra
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

$AAII Bull - $AAII Bear rose again but still no extreme yet.
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

reviewing my chart book, not looking pretty for the bulls, but daily is entering buy the dip area unless we have LL <4380ish. than things can get nasty fast. looking at $VIX and $VVIX suggest bears a roaming. short term under 5 DMA rip will be sold. as trend follower there have to be a daily reversal to even think the end of selling is done.
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

for after market data, AD issues is best to see the reversal, but we will have to wait after the trading day to be certain, so.....bulls will have to continue to search for a bullish reversal in a day to come. Peace!
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by JFR »

SPY daily. Strong pullback, breaching the EMA 20.

Screenshot_20210911_162020.jpg
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by JFR »

SPY daily. Point and Figure. A handful of times this calendar year, the PnF has turned south, and then resumed its upward climb. At this time? Who knows? I mostly read and play the charts, although I started out as a value investor. Be cautious re the strong pullback on the daily candlesticks.

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Cobra
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Al Brooks sees 40% chances of 15 to 20% correction has started, a follow through next week would increase the chances. I agree.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

BEAR SIGNALS, EXIT STRATEGY, [edited from David Keller]
Note this is MEDIUM TERM, not intraday, not short term.

Here are four key signals that would indicate that the bullish phase has exhausted:
First: Each new month has seen the S&P break to new highs as stocks have traded onward and upward. If the index would attempt to make yet another new high and fail, it could indicate that the buying power from earlier in the year has dissipated.

Second: A lower low. A break below the most recent swing low (4360) would mean that the most recent support level was not holding. That could suggest an exhaustion of buyers and/or increased selling pressure.

Third: The 50-dma, which has served as consistent support through 2021, would need to fail ...The consistency of this moving average would tell me that a pullback to the 50-day is most likely a "buy on the dip" opportunity, as it has been all through this year. But what if this support level actually fails and price continues lower? Well then, a flood to the exits could cause a sudden and significant drop in the S&P 500.

Fourth: We'd need to see the RSI break below 40. Five of the seven brief pullbacks in 2021 have seen the RSI come right down to 40 before bouncing higher. If the RSI would break below 40, this could indicate a "change of character" where you may have to acknowledge a change in overall trend.

The good news is you don't have to know ahead of time which new high will be the last one. You just need to have a good exit strategy in place and let the chart tell you when the conditions have changed!

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Curious that Junk Bonds [the classic risk-on, risk-off barometer] are still relatively strong,
but Bearish Engulfing on Friday.
They are typically the first ones to go if you are going to “de-risk” your portfolio.
Back in Feb they got nervous and started mass-selling Junk, then in March they had to scramble to get back in.
Today they just don’t give a shit …. yet….
We’ll have to take it day by day
912junk.png.jpg
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Al_Dente wrote:HUGE block of selling in the last hour Friday
If that’s not exhaustion selling it’s near-exhaustion selling
Last time that happened was Aug 18… the next day went down before it bounced
Looks like the magnet target here is a test of last month’s gap (gray bar)
add: revised chart showing that the HUGE sell in the last hour Friday was folks getting stopped out at what they thought would be a double bottom (black circles) but was not ... hmmm.... target gap-fill
912stopped.png.jpg
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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JFR
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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by JFR »

Cobra wrote:Al Brooks sees 40% chances of 15 to 20% correction has started, a follow through next week would increase the chances. I agree.
Thanks for that, Cobra. Always good to get the views of Al Brooks.

SPY weekly.

At this time, there is a medium red candlestick on the weekly, well above the EMA 20, with volume about average. Not cause for alarm, but caution is merited. I just play the charts. Swing trades --> flat on ES and SPY. Day trades and scalps --> by the charts. Just imo.

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Re: 09/11/2021 Weekend Update

Post by Trades w 2 Cats »

Great references to outside sources this weekend. BOTTOM LINE: everybody know market is hanging by a thread this time. Why? What has changed?
1. Goldman Sacks has stated that Fed taper will start in November. Who runs the Fed, well we all know the answer to that.
2. Nancy Pelosi is between a rock and a hard place trying to control her caucus. Chuck Schumer same deal.
3. My personal opinion the Biden presidency is in deep trouble. He has yet to deliver for his followers. Afghanistan may or may not have been his fault but it was on his watch so he gets the blame. Now this get tough on everybody who hasn't been vaccinated (Full disclosure I had Covid before the Doc's knew what it was (don't hang out with the international flight crews in Hotel elevators!!) and I got vaccinated as fast as I could) except critical unions says loud and clear it is all about politics. So showing as a weak presidency on top of lack of unity within the ranks in congress is not good for stimulus.

So that is what is different this time the market knows Uncle Sugar may not come through and the Fed has to pretend they can return things to normal. If this turkey doesn't bounce off that 50 average with a vengeance it could be the dreaded waterfall declines and that will be a life changing experience for all the newer traders.

Looking forward to some excitement this week! :o :)
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