Cobra's Market View

Down 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 64% chances to close up.

This article on supply-chain problems is being copied all over the internet.
It describes shortages of everything dating back to at least July.
“Two years ago, a 40-foot container cost less than $2,000 to transport goods from Asia to the U.S. Today the service fetches as much as $25,000 if an importer pays a premium for on-time delivery, which is a luxury. That’s translated into big money for container carriers “
How long will  these shortages last?
Personal anecdote (true story: I’ve been waiting 5+ weeks for a little part for my SUV …. )
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... rough-2023

FYI: Check AMKBY, Moller-Maersk, the global container shipping firm

This is who I follow on Twitter. He covers containers, dry bulkers, tankers and LNG. Currently accumulating leveraged tankers as he sees a multi year up cycle due to the very low order book.

Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
CEO & Co-Founder Cleaves Asset Management
Ranked #1 Shipping Equity Analyst globally by Bloomberg in 2019, 2020 & 2021
Oslo, Norwaycleavesassetmanagement.comJoined March 2017

Rob Hanna data on next week
https://quantifiableedges.com/weakness- ... kest-week/

Buy a 'free' iPhone 13 with trade-in at Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T
(with caveats)
https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/buy-a- ... d-to-know/

From Zerohedge reprinting Goldman. I really liked reason 10 to buy the dip. The math not the reasom-

10. To summarize, the 10 points above:

If you allocate $1 into SPY, that means 6 cents into AAPL, 6 cents in MSFT, 4 cents into GOOG/L, 4 cents in AMZN, 2 cents into FB. That is 22 cents of every $1 into 5 stocks.
If you allocate $1 into QQQ, that means 11 cents into AAPL, 10 cents in MSFT, 8 cents into GOOG/L, 8 cents in AMZN, 4 cents into FB. That is 41 cents of every $1 into 5 stocks.

"This week $SPX dropped despite the Fed adding over $91B to its balance sheet for a new record high.
New highs in Fed balance sheet have led new highs on $SPX.
A sign of the correlation breaking or new $SPX highs to follow in short order?
We'll soon find out."
[Northman]

Daily
1) SPY momentum printed a positive divergence, suggesting a dead-cat bounce is likely
2) Lower low SPY flag. First target down is a test of the Aug low in the 435 zone
3) I use VIX (and inverse VIX) as a proxy for sentiment … still bear-SPY
4) AD …. still bear-SPY
Here’s a cogent analysis of sentiment from Art Hill. His chart is WEEKLY:
https://stockcharts.com/articles/chartw ... t-579.html

The traditional “flight to safety” is to switch from stocks and junk into US Treasury Bonds and Utilities. That didn’t happen last week.
[Mish]

From "It is what it is department" Breaking down with deteriorated internals. market is hanging by a thread. The down side of a Trend following method is we don't see the turn until the tun shows up. for now there is no positive reversal to talk about. intraday continues with negative price action. Short term momentum is breaking and pointing south. $VIX and $VVIX will be a guide into next week. very dangerous time in TA, buyers beware the market is in a fearful mood.short term trend is down, swing setup is clearly showing LL under 5DMA so rips will be sold. keep it simple. Peace!

$AAII Bull - $AAII Bear shows retailers quickly become pessimistic which actually is good for bulls, not extreme though.