The NYMO cycle remains down.
We are near the Turn Zone but not there yet.
Given the price dump, I was a bit surprised by this.
Perhaps some dip buying at the open... I don't know.
In any case, NYMO could find a low around here (like February and March) or it could have more to go.
Price closed two open down gaps this morning and found no support at the middle keltner band and 50MA.
At this point, stops below the August low have been collected. The margin clerk may have a few calls to make yet though.
So, like NYMO, price could find a low around here but also could keep going. We shall see.
Lately, OPEX has been a location for lows.
Bears need to tag the lower keltner band to truly confirm a bearish bias.
Interestingly, the lower keltner (at 4269) is right around the July low and an open gap.
While the price action seems dramatic, VIX is considerably below the January, February, March and May highs.
The VIX futures curve remains in contango. Volatility sellers getting some squeeze but not a panic.
So, again the message is that this could be a quick shakeout (buy the dip) or the start of something bigger (
).
Time will tell.
I am short SPX and R2K.
I have scaled out three profit units from SPX and two from R2K.
So, these are now runner positions with breakeven stops.