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"It is what it is Department" It is critical time and indecision junction.. Recall last year Sep-Oct. period to today's. the similarities: 1. a mild correction 2. $UST10Y up 3. Yield curve 2y over 5y 4. Vix is up from the lows. not good looking for future economy, but look at the out comes of " The Fed is behind you" not bad at all, a whooping 27% gain to recent high from then. if you think USA is going down think again
Look at SPY daily chart it is clear that %B is under 50 but it managed to consolidate and breakout to new highs eventually. from this chart alone, it is simple to see a higher trade into next week bulls are not done. I am leaning bearish but if we trade higher I will have to give the bulls the benefit of a doubt.
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Lets see what our "it is what it is Department" got to say?
Short term momentum is bullish bias. an attempt to breakup out of upper wedge is clear, bulls tried that move weeks ago,failed badly and now they are trying again, will it or will it not? remain to be seen.
And now for the trade....this may answer some of our new day trader who is interest of how I plan my trade. 1. daily trend is down HL and LL is clear 2. I use 390 MA on 5 min (390MA in 5 min. + 5MA in a daily equivalent) to see a change in trend. it is up right now, so trend change from down to up is in the work. 3. Intraday price action, as of Friday, it is in a negative price action, next day projection is down.
Plan the trade: no new HH the main trend is still down, new HH will confirm a trend change. (this is trend following method)
Intraday: Price action is negative, down trend is expected to be lower, rips will be sold (RSI14 >70, trigger sell when RSI14<70) keep it simple, stop is right above it, R/R is 1 to infinity
another note is inside day, Harami in nature, here I use fib level to gauge bullish > 61.8% bearish <38.2%. if you lose money next week it's you fault
Peace!
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.