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10/11/2021 Live Update

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Al_Dente
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Re: 10/11/2021 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Indices on the top panel, daily, 50sma, CCI-13
IWM strongest (only one above 50sma), QQQ weakest (filled the gap)

Hot stuff on the bottom panel, same settings
1011acp.png.jpg
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 10/11/2021 Live Update

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Regarding "Hot Stuff" Oil:
OIL FUTURES: Positions have become relatively stretched, with bullish longs outnumbering bearish shorts by a ratio of 6.76:1 (84th percentile), up from 4.25:1 (57th percentile) six weeks ago … the increasingly lopsided positioning is creating a source of fragility and raises the probability of a sharp sell-off  … Extremely stretched long-short ratios have previously preceded a sharp reversal in the price trend when fund managers try to realise some of their paper profits. And the current lack of hedge fund short positions means there may be few speculative buyers to absorb such selling, raising the risk of sharp pull back in prices. [Reuters]

10/11 SentimenTrader: Among commodities tracked by the S&P GSCI Commodity Spot Indexes, 100% of them are showing a positive 3-year rolling return. That hasn't happened in 17 years.
After that signal, commodities continued higher for almost four more years.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 10/11/2021 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

TIME TO BONE UP ON STAGFLATION:
GS defines "stagflationary periods" as episodes of two or more consecutive quarters in which core CPI inflation ran at least 50 basis points above the consensus long-term expectation while real US GDP growth registered 50 bp or more below trend.
US equity investors have had little experience with stagflation in recent decades, which have been characterized mostly by deflation.
During the last 60 years, GS calculates that the SPX has generated a median real total return of +2.5% per quarter, but that quarterly return fell to minus -2.1% in stagflationary environments
Stagflation has been associated with stable real revenues but declining profit margins and real earnings, indicating companies struggling to raise prices quickly enough to offset rising input costs.

GS: Who are the winners and losers during stagflation?
At the sector level, Energy and Health Care have typically generated the strongest returns during periods of stagflation.
Industrials and Information Technology have generally lagged most during stagflationary environments. 
Stagflation has been associated with shifts in consumer spending behavior and the outperformance of services companies relative to firms selling goods. 
GS keeps their year-end S&P 500 target of 4700 [MS’s target is 4,000]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Cobra
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Re: 10/11/2021 Live Update

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Re: 10/11/2021 Live Update

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Re: 10/11/2021 Live Update

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Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Tuesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

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