Cobra's Market View

Up 3 weeks in a row, the next week has 81% chances to make a higher high so more up ahead.

Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Facebook and Amazon — the biggest of big cap tech — are among the 30% of the S&P 500 companies reporting next week. A third of the Dow also releases results.
So far, about 84% of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates, but those that missed have been punished, like SNAP (down -26% Friday) and INTC (down 11.7% Friday).

Monday Earnings: Facebook (after the close)

Tuesday Earnings: Alphabet and Microsoft and Twitter and Robinhood (all after the close), Visa, Advanced Micro Devices, 3M, UPS
Also Tuesday: 9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices, 9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices, 10:00 a.m. New home sales, 10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

Wednesday Earnings: Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Boeing, eBay
Also Wednesday: 8:30 a.m. Durable goods, 8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators

Thursday Earnings: Apple and Amazon (both after the close), Caterpillar, Merck, Starbucks,
Also Thursday: 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. Q3 advance real GDP, 10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

Friday Earnings: not much
Also on Friday: 8:30 a.m. Personal income/spending, 8:30 a.m. Q3 employment cost index, 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI, 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

From "It is what it is department" This week focus is How to spot a turn? the simplest way possible. From up to down or sideways consolidation as of today, 1) Daily LL = we got that. 2) Elder impulse system change color = we got that. 3) Doji/spinning Top/dark cloud cover candle = we got a Doji 4) No Fear No Bear = $VIX and $VVIX = both are turning up from their recent bottom. there is fear. the chart below tell them all, trend change is at hands. What about chart pattern? Diamond top, H&S, or simply LH declining wedge? too early to see a diamond top, bull flag if you are bullish and Declining Wedge if you are bearish. right now it is still slightly bullish bias do to the close above consolidation box, the pivot point is right there on the top box, so again, Monday will be easy day to day trade, up/down a big gap either way will confirm a trend change or not. keep it simple.We got many of the signs that up trend is weakening over all. Intraday price action is negative, expecting down side to continue. two attempts to take out the previous day high but failed. gap up over the new high will eliminate this bearishness. so.....Monday trade under any of the high will be good enough excuse to sell trade well, Peace!

Isn’t it rare to see a FRED chart with a SPY overlay?
Maybe Northman Trader added the SPY overlay
Anyway, FYI, he’s out of all longs

Dated October 20:
[Nice chart]
“It just triggered a buy signal”

40 years ago 10/22/21 The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield continued to edge higher in the past week, touching 1.70% before falling to 1.64% Friday. Market pros are watching to see if the yield will reach 1.74%, the closing high from March… [CNBC]

This week in the FEDS-COOKIE-JAR NEWS in case you missed it:
Federal Reserve ethics officials in March 2020 cautioned Fed policymakers about personal securities trading
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed ... SL1N2RH1AS
FED ISSUES NEW RULES
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fed ... to+zero%29

MORE ON RATES.
MARK HULBERT (on 10/15) cited a new study: when the 10-year yield declined, the FAAMGs outperform (they take advantage of low rates and borrow more money) …conversely rates up = FAAMGs down
The new research suggests that low rates may actually not be expansionary, as is often assumed, but actually “contractionary.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-t ... 1634627020

“Hedge Funds slash FAANG exposure to two-year low before earnings” [today, Bloomberg, paywalled]

$AAII bull - $AAII bear shows retailers get bullish quickly. No extreme though so still some up rooms.

Facebook earnings are going to move the market. If things were good for them why would they be changing their name?

Real issue going forward for all of the media stocks is money from advertisers. We are moving into the year end spend a thon and the shelves are empty. Home Depot and the rest who sell power tools for gifts are putting stuff on sale when they have it and they have the labor to re-arrange the shelves. I could be 180 degrees wrong on this but I just don't see record advertising spend going forward.