04/02/2022 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 3 weeks in a row, the next week has 81% chances to make a higher high, so more up.

[te_fern]

During the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[Al_Dente]

3/28/22 Bill Gates and Blackrock are backing the start-up behind hydropanels that make water out of thin air
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/bill-ga ... anels.html
"Source Hydropanels" has a sustainable water technology that uses the power of the sun to extract an endless volume of clean, reliable drinking water from the air.

[Al_Dente]

This morning's news: true story:
Airbus flew its A380 on 100% sustainable aviation fuel made from used cooking oil. As per a statement on Airbus’ website, the first A380 flight fueled by 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) took place on Friday (March 25). An A380 test aircraft flew for 3 hours with one of its four engines fuelled by 100% sustainable aviation fuel.

[JFR]

SPY daily. A pullback, three days down, approaching the EMAs. But the candle is a hammer.

[JFR]

Longer term view. SPY weekly. Tried repeatedly to move on down beneath the low of October, 2021, but failed to do so. Got a bounce off the lower band of the Bollinger a couple of weeks ago. Settling now above the EMA 20. Where next? Who knows, but continued struggles are in order. The bulls and the bears are having their own little war. The bears want lower valuations, so they can re-load at discounts. The bulls, as always, want the market to keep on going up, after a helluva run for two years. Nothing is easy at this time. Follow the charts.

[jademann]

Following the same chart JFR. SPY 462 was rejected.
We did not get the same deep sell off as two years ago so together with valuations and rapid rates increases I can not take a bull position at these prices. FOMO doesn't work on me

As for where next SPY 445 anyone?

[Al_Dente]

This is what Whale Druckenmiller is describing:
Consumer demand is a bit weak (albeit most are still on higher lows), while the defensives are strong, relatively.
Hence, "something is not right in the economy"

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[JFR]

Following the same chart JFR. SPY 462 was rejected.
We did not get the same deep sell off as two years ago so together with valuations and rapid rates increases I can not take a bull position at these prices. FOMO doesn't work on me

My bias is a little bit more to the upside, jademann. I have some holdings, although the pickings are relatively slim these days.

On the monthly chart for SPY, there is heavy volume at some peaks, and heavy volume at capitulation. Right now we are in no man's land. I drew a line at 430, which was a key level many times since July of 2021.

[Al_Dente]

Most news on the Ukraine war is redundant and depressing.
BUT THIS IS FASCINATING.
The Ukraine Parliment just put a bounty on captured Russian military stuff.

SPOILER ALERT: (all prices are in USD):
Combat aircraft - $1,000,000;
Combat helicopter - $500,000;
Tank, ground artillery - $100,000;
Infantry fighting vehicle, armored personnel carrier, armored reconnaissance patrol vehicle - $50,000;
Ships of 1st or 2nd rank - $1,000,000 ...
And more...
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/ukra ... et-warship

[jademann]

Al, All is fair in love and war so someone said..

JFR, these are my really long term charts.
My view is the center of the channel in the 1 year interval chart is reached most years.
Also the 600ma is the long term bull support.
I just cant be a bull at these prices. The S&P yield is 1.5% and the 10 year is 2.5% and the CPI is 8.2%.
We are in the same setup as 1987 with the recent bond sell off.
A FED mismanaged economy for some get rich quick friends?

[JFR]

Al, All is fair in love and war so someone said..

JFR, these are my really long term charts.
My view is the center of the channel in the 1 year interval chart is reached most years.
Also the 600ma is the long term bull support.
I just cant be a bull at these prices. The S&P yield is 1.5% and the 10 year is 2.5% and the CPI is 8.2%.
We are in the same setup as 1987 with the bond sell off.

Thanks for sharing, jademann.

[jademann]

JFR, Sure thing. We are just playing the risk rewards odds all the time here.
Looking at the 1 year candles 2022 could also be a repeat of 1999, but there are other possible outcomes also.
If it is though, look at the 10 years which followed 1999.
If I only knew back then what I know now..

[Cobra]

$AAII Bull - $AAII Bear shows retailers are gaining confidences.

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department"Internals were improving but in the last 3 trading days it shown a mixed picture, $VVIX suggested more volatility to be had and caution on the buy side. $VIX will be something I would keep closer look, a reading >20 will give a HH reading and that could turn negative quickly with the $VVIX as is

A look at price action, 3rd trial and failed. it will be a screaming FOMO move in a century if the market try again. for now, bulls are on a defensive side.

Day trade: Friday trade was negative price action. the last few minutes ran up it's suspicious at best. Rips will be sold. keep it simple. Peace!