03/23/2023 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Higher low or not, wait and see.

[Al_Dente]

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 New Home Sales
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

[Al_Dente]

Top panel: Ten Sectors on 5ma show:
2 up (semis-brown and tech-black)
8 down
In other words, SPY is bouncing with the help of just two sectors.
In all fairness health XLV-orange, is oversold-bouncing after a prolonged decline.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:08 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/03 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

EARLIER
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 191,000, down 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 192,000.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Was out enjoying the wildflower bloom in the desert last couple of days.

Did see a note that Apple and Microsoft are now 13% of the S & P. So an up index today with most stocks down is much easier to do.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

So far this count is holding up. No idea what could trigger a drop, there are a lot of possibilities.

Of course there is another count that assumes the October low was the low for this cycle.

I think that is a reason Elliott wave is not respected, because it always sees multiple futures and people much prefer a simple single forecast.

[Cobra]

Break to the new day high with a good looking bull bar in the next couple of bars then it's an early sign of uptrend day. I'll pass though as it'd be mostly within the yesterday's range which means resistances on every step up.

[Al_Dente]

EARLIER:
New Home Sales at 640,000 Annual Rate in February; New Home Average Prices Down 4.5% Year-over-year

[JFR]

ES daily.

Strong, bullish marubozu candle today. Another one on Tuesday. With a strong bearish candle in between. Up off the EMA 20.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

A long ride up on Monday and Tuesday. Down on Wednesday. Up today, through the Pivot, all the way to R1.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Strong move up to R1, where it hits a wall. Down to the EMA 20.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:12 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

The pullback probably will be bought eventually as so far it looks like a bull flag.

[JFR]

Alternative markets.

Uppers: DBC, GLD, USO.

Uppers, on a bounce up from yesterday's closing action: IYR, SPYG, SPYV.

Downers: TLT, UUP.

[JFR]

SPY 5 minutes.

Yesterday's volatility. Relative calm today. Now trying to turn down and take away this morning's gains.

[Serenity]

ES 06-23 (60 Minute) 2023_03_23 (9_36_26 AM).png

So far this count is holding up. No idea what could trigger a drop, there are a lot of possibilities.

Of course there is another count that assumes the October low was the low for this cycle.

I think that is a reason Elliott wave is not respected, because it always sees multiple futures and people much prefer a simple single forecast.

Elliott Wave is one of the factors to determine which way we are heading to, if multiple factors / techniques used with it.
Right now, I see market under selling BUT the day is not over yet and it is not related to EW and unless all of them line up, I don't stay long holding. This is more day-trading market. There are people who are really good with EW and they use many other tools .

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Eyes on the Pivot.

Back later ...

[merryme]

For me, not trading now. Wait and see. Yesterday was another distribution day and there have been too many lately. Someone is lightening their load.

[merryme]

This is now. Acceleration to the downside. I don't like this chart.