03/29/2011 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

By the way, Bearish Engulfing is very very very very bullish only since year 2000. Longer term history doesn't show any edges. That's daily bearish engulfing. Weekly bearish engulfing is bearish, that's for sure, although it also means a rebound the next weekly bar.

[KENA]

Well I not expect this....But I am still ready to short. Wait and see.

[Cobra]

So far goes as planed. A decisively breakout would make my evil plan invalid though.

[cletus]

Shorts are fighting over crumbs while bulls enjoy big up moves. lol.

I made approximately 35% returns the past few weeks on my entire portfolio, only in short positions. Bears are doing just fine! It's all about the right entries and exits and use of stops. I covered at 1260 and am looking for another big wave lower and trying probable short entries for weakness. However, if the bears can't reverse it from the 1330 area then it's probably off to new highs in which case I will be bullish, but I have multiple reasons to not want to be long at any point here (I swing trade only though, not a day trader).

[BullBear52x]

BUY BUY BUY!!!!

[DCS]

Wow - I didn't expect anything above 1316 this afternoon. Nice long Cobra. Are you holding or exiting today?

I removed my stop and will watch closely until close. Strong move thru 1321 might convince me to exit, but I'm actually pretty comfortable with my short here.

[Cobra]

No comments. Overshot would be the signal to take partial profits

[Cobra]

Wow - I didn't expect anything above 1316 this afternoon. Nice long Cobra. Are you holding or exiting today?

I removed my stop and will watch closely until close. Strong move thru 1321 might convince me to exit, but I'm actually pretty comfortable with my short here.

I'll hold.

[AK84]

Wow - I didn't expect anything above 1316 this afternoon. Nice long Cobra. Are you holding or exiting today?

I removed my stop and will watch closely until close. Strong move thru 1321 might convince me to exit, but I'm actually pretty comfortable with my short here.

I'll hold.

What about short at 3rd last day of the month and cover next or next to next day ? Does that still apply today if you're holding your long ?

[FJoe]

Cobra,

I assume your evil plan is for a small break above the highs of yesterday, then a move down. Will you short this move down and how far down to you expect the 2 legged down move to go?

If it breaks above 132.5, will that invalidate your evil plan? Thanks

[cletus]

CPC is at 0.74. Take a look at what happened recently when CPC was that low. Not usually a bullish signal. I will probably buy puts if they can push it above 1320 today. At worst, there should be a pullback to 1312 to complete the continuation pattern. At best, it's a double top, target 1290.

[Cobra]

Overshot.

[Me XMan]

Going short SPY again here. Why? Two reasons: Debt ceiling breached is 2 days away and Fed is slowly taking money out of market.

[Cobra]

Cobra,

I assume your evil plan is for a small break above the highs of yesterday, then a move down. Will you short this move down and how far down to you expect the 2 legged down move to go?

If it breaks above 132.5, will that invalidate your evil plan? Thanks

Yes, I'll short but only if bears show some strength or I see more statistics on the downside in which case I'll short in AH (assume we close high of day) but as it's not in the model, I won't announce it.

Breaks above 132.5 would make my plan in jeopardy but still possible. More above 132.5 then my plan is dead.

[BullBear52x]

Something got to give 3 days here one way or the others. by the way don't call me bear no more.

[Cobra]

What about short at 3rd last day of the month and cover next or next to next day ? Does that still apply today if you're holding your long ?

The long I'm holding now is for short-term model so I have to hold in order to strictly follow the model.

[BullBear52x]

FAZers OUT also for swing position.

[cletus]

That big volume bar at 2 PM EST on SPY should be a little worrisome for bulls.

[KENA]

I have to leave early..Will miss the close...See you tomorrow.

[BullBear52x]

This week so far, day traders beat swingers where is uncle Ben lets move the market there's lot of 401K need to be saved here.