Cobra's Market View

With AAPL rising to Galaxy far far away, I wonder how you guys think about it: More up or It's too stretched on the upside.

My little analysis about AAPL is here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/02 ... pl-review/

Cobra, perhaps you can do an analog study to the 1995-1997 markets, traders are conditioned to volatility past 10 years but there are markets in the past that just went up all year.

it feels like we are getting there--

But that any serious longer term (eg 1-24 month) top in aapl will likely be a process. maybe 2-3 tries up and then a sloppy range or real decline. The action in aapl and in qqq is starting to look more like 1999 every day. the other two longer term tops were processes of 5-7months --which is what the 500 billion hurdle chart really shows).

shorter term all we can say is a hit of the daily 20 ema is the next step in the process. you have to be open to the idea qqq will come close in the next few weeks since we are on week 9 in a row up. and that after the other 8+ events up we have generally come close or hit the daily 20 ema (using stockcharts data) it seems likely that in order for qqq to hit it's 20 aapl has to at least chill somewhat. so a small decline of some sort seems inevitable--after that we can see.

BONUS NON TECHNICAL INDICATOR--ERCI has a very very good record of forecasting recessions in the USA over the last 20 years or so. last sep they called it the middle of this year (which i take to mean may-aug). just a few days back they were back confirming the call and taking epic flack from tv dudes for doing so (i see the epic flack as a strong confirm of the call's chances). i realize this site is very technical and likely to write off economics--but in the case of ERCI it's worth making an exception. they could be wrong--but if you look at their past record it actually beats almost all trading systems. the odds are it it's a huge mistake to ignore this--and that it's more a matter of degree than if the event happens.

Given the idea that aapl and qqq are looking a bit 1999ish--coupled with the past timing on the 500 billion hurdle charts--and erci data. it's really getting hard to avoid the idea that aapl tops in the next 1-6 months--and the market along with it. if we assume this top is faster (they learn each time) it should mean 4 months or so after first aapl top that you want to be looking at puts. this makes the period just prior to and just after the aapl 5 phone look interesting (call it june-july).

I don't trade AAPL, (Not yet, so's TVIX) anyways, AAPL is at the point that if it failed the market in all indexes will, here is my little extreme gauge, it's over due for pull back before Ron Paul use it as currency standard.

BullBear52x wrote:I don't trade AAPL, (Not yet, so's TVIX) anyways, AAPL is at the point that if it failed the market in all indexes will, here is my little extreme gauge, it's over due for pull back before Ron Paul use it as currency standard.

Hmm, nice chart.

I watched the price action on AAPL all day and it definitely smelled of exhaustion: 544 seems to be a key line of resistance. IPad3 or no, there may simply not be enough new buyers out there (maybe except for the Isreali Central Bank).

Interesting comparison of AAPL and Silver:

http://peaktheories.com/self.php?id=1140

Do you know what happened when Steve Jobs left the company before he came back?
That's right folks. It's GOING DOWN!

poll very interesting--

if you group the "it going higher no matter what" and "the it goes higher in march" you have 70% assuming decently higher. and 30% saying "not much if at all". now if you take the attitude that aapl topping is the market topping--we finally have 70% long and 30% short(ish) this is the inverse of most of the polls here. using this indirect approach we have people more bullish than the normal survey measuring.

Becasue of QE and inflation over the years, now 500 Billions is equalant to ???? Billions.

Maybe but not now. 548 is the high for the quarter. Neg divergence and tri star top with hanging man doji in center. The trend looks busted. In for a serious correction along with the markets. Hopefully we start to tank his coming week.

The problem with analyzing statistics on 2000 past trading days is that secular shifts in capital markets are not exposed. Market statistics change significantly in 12 year cycles.

BullBear52x wrote:I don't trade AAPL, (Not yet, so's TVIX) anyways, AAPL is at the point that if it failed the market in all indexes will, here is my little extreme gauge, it's over due for pull back before Ron Paul use it as currency standard.

Good Graphics thanks for sharing !

70% chance I'll be buying AAPL weekly calls on Monday.

martinm wrote:70% chance I'll be buying AAPL weekly calls on Monday.

Thanks and welcome aboard.

Agree, this consolidation pattern means a breakout on the upside is more likely.