09/03/2013 Live Update

[rhight]

OK, just for fun, I'm in as noted. Risking 130 bucks.

I might add, this is for a swing, and that if we don't see some serious UPV into the close, I'll consider jumping out early.

[lilitulip]

Hi RedKite,

Appreciate your input. I also check SPX:VIX, but since SPX has been moving higher, should the value need to use a relative method compare to previous, instead of a fix number, I don't know whether use percentage difference is better? what do you think? thanks

Thanks. My misunderstanding.

On a different subject, whether we go up or down. On Friday NYA50R had a new low in this recent distribution phase. I can't find an example where it had a new low after the final bottom. In other words it's saying the final bottom of this phase is still ahead of us, not behind us.

June 24th was a new low but it bottomed on that day?

Yes indeed. You could say last Friday was final bottom, the problem is that June 24 was a capitulation day, and last Friday wasn't. Usually the bottom is a capitulation day, though I have to say I don't have the rigorous stats for that assertion. I'm measuring capitulation using NYUD:NYUPV.

I too thought Friday was the final bottom until I saw the European volatility measures today, VDAX and VSTOXX, then I went back and looked at NYA50R on Friday, and the lack of capitulation, and now I'm very suspicious of this current recovery. I'm not saying 100% chance of a lower low around the corner, just there are too many unusual indicator values right now for Friday to look like a clean bottom. Another is SPX:VIX, which for many years has always shown a lower value at a true bottom. Last April it bottomed at 90, a record high value, and we weren't even that low on Friday. So it would be creating a new record.

I take your point though.

[fehro]

SPX 5m .. highly speculative at this point.. but possible triangle, within a larger descending triangle... fwiw. It will be interesting to see which gap from today will be filled first.. the morning.. or the interday one.

[Daniel-David]

Ominous spike in $vxn echoes and confirms fresh LOD in QQQ.

[rhight]

Uh-oh, if we fall thru the gap i'm gonna crap

[fehro]

Uh-oh, if we fall thru the gap i'm gonna crap

if we fall through the gap and head lower.. think there will be even a sharper down move.. we've bounced weakly off this support 3 times in the last 4-5 days.. every time you jump up and down on the floor the weaker it gets.. until it falls to the next floor

[uempel]

Green cycle signals move:

[gappy]

glta.

gold.PNG

[fehro]

VIX goes green.. SPX green.. minor divergence

[Daniel-David]

Crude oil pushes at hod as Dow goes negative to fresh LOD.

[Cobra]

volume surge, biggest bar, support, so might see rebound here first. then we'll see.

[uempel]

Some guys don't want SPX 1637 to break

[JFR]

Big gap up today. Somewhat of a puzzle. Optimism as Obama takes the slow, cautious route to a strike?

And now it looks as if it might even fill. Anticipated strike on Syria?

Too much emphasis on Syria? LOL

For swing trades, I was flat over the weekend, and I am still flat.

[uempel]

Crude oil pushes at hod as Dow goes negative to fresh LOD.

Kabbalistic tree of life versus Lord of Destruction - I sure like your abbreviations

[RedKite]

Hi RedKite,

Appreciate your input. I also check SPX:VIX, but since SPX has been moving higher, should the value need to use a relative method compare to previous, instead of a fix number, I don't know whether use percentage difference is better? what do you think? thanks

I'm not saying 100% chance of a lower low around the corner, just there are too many unusual indicator values right now for Friday to look like a clean bottom. Another is SPX:VIX, which for many years has always shown a lower value at a true bottom. Last April it bottomed at 90, a record high value, and we weren't even that low on Friday. So it would be creating a new record.

lilitulip: SPX:VIX is not one that's easy to quantify, so I don't try too hard with it. Some periods it bottoms very low, like below 50, other periods it bottoms high, most recently a bit below 80, usually. I looked at percentage difference a while ago and didn't come to a conclusion. So I use it as a secondary indicator, not primary. Another one in a similar vein is the RS of BPINDV, which should go down to at least 45 (with smoothing) for a bottom, and hasn't. Can't base trades on these, they're just supporting indicators.

Edit: that's BPINDY not BPINDV

[Daniel-David]

Crude oil pushes at hod as Dow goes negative to fresh LOD.

Kabbalistic tree of life versus Lord of Destruction - I sure like your abbreviations

I like your imaginative interpretations of these abbreviations.



I thought them fairly standard...

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. into the morning gap...

[Daniel-David]

Redkite: "Can't base trades on these, they're just supporting indicators."

True. Often the trend is more important than the absolute level. Also, surpassing or undercutting a prior level can also be more important than the nominal value at any given time...

[uempel]

Crude oil pushes at hod as Dow goes negative to fresh LOD.

Kabbalistic tree of life versus Lord of Destruction - I sure like your abbreviations

I like your imaginative interpretations of these abbreviations.



I thought them fairly standard...

Sorry, I'm just bored, trying to confuse everybody. I'm waiting for some kind of strong move at SPX 1637 and so far nothing is happening...

[MrMiyagi]

VIX; high of day and rising.