10/18/2013 Live Update

[rhight]

Good morning all,

It takes a fool to go short this crazy market, that said, I just went short this crazy market this morning via SDS based on a touch of channel resistance and the 4 year rising resistance (today marks the 7th touch!). The market reversed rapidly the last 3 times touched this year. This is not a day trade. I'm "betting" that sometime within the next couple of months I'll make a profit and go long on the next pull-back to intermediate support, let's say 1670.

The following image is based on 60 min Closes in May and September projected forward to today. The last 3 peaks lay on a line within 1 point (over 6 months - incredible.) It is quite possible that price will continue to rise, bumping up against this well respected rising resistance. But, I expect that the rocket launch phase is probably over.

SPX 10-18-13 Trend M.png (8.86 KiB) Viewed 2025 times

[Al_Dente]

This is a chop/range day
Internals support bear at the moment
5min

[uempel]

Update on SPX 1min

[Mr. BachNut]

Neutral. Missed my entries while I was on the road this week. Feeling pain from the sidelines here as I have not wanted to chase.

My summation signal is up.
My composite trend signal is up.

The SPX has reached the target area for this uptrend that I mentioned yesterday.
It is within a lick of the upper Keltner band and it has tagged the upper side of the ascending wedge.
It could work a little above the band but a pullback or some back and fill consolidation should be probable for next week.
McClellan Oscillator still has a bit of room.
The risk reward for fresh longs here does not seem great.

[fehro]

SPX 15m... sitting just above gap.. and former resistance..

[uempel]

GOOG is up 107 points on earnings

Did you hear/read how many points that is for SPX? All indices with goog are green, DJI without goog (GE only up 2.5%) is flat ..

FB up 3.8%
AMZN up 2.9%

Google comprises 1.64% of SPY

Thanks Boss

[Mr. BachNut]

VIX has bottomed at or around 12.5 a number of times this year.

[gappy]

A couple charts pointing to at least a temp top

Some Hampson info, not quite there yet.http://solarcycles.net/2013/10/14/cycli ... -bull-top/

[wayne0708]

It wouldnt be bad to cash in some profit today.

[Mr. BachNut]

So, it looks like the magnetic pull will be in the SPY 174 and 173 strikes today.
174 has the ball, but I wouldn't rule out an attempt on 173 at some point, perhaps after the Europe close.
Not a prediction...

[Al_Dente]

VIX has actually not confirmed any new SPY highs (by making a new VIX low) since 14 march @ $11.05 (11.05% volatility)
See red box, second panel

[Cobra]

not sure if it's higher low. I'm neutral. wait and see.

[Mr. BachNut]

The action in the Dow is still within the realm of a corrective move in a bigger downtrend. Hmmm...

A move to retest the October low/200 day MA in the weeks ahead would be technically normal.
A successful second test of the 200 day would be quite bullish. Failure would not.

Sorry all my posts seem a little bearish today. Not intentional. My signals are up!

[wayne0708]

VIX has actually not confirmed any new SPY highs (by making a new VIX low) since 14 march @ $11.05 (11.05% volatility)
See red box, second panel

1018vix_png.png

Are you suggesting that there are more room for VIX to free fall?

[TWT]

$SPX: If the DZZ is correct the (Y) should unfold one more up leg

[wayne0708]

Getting close to extreme

[rhight]

So, it looks like the magnetic pull will be in the SPY 174 and 173 strikes today.
174 has the ball, but I wouldn't rule out an attempt on 173 at some point, perhaps after the Europe close.
Not a prediction...

How hard is it to trade options, Mr. Bachnut? I read a primer from Phil's Stockworld, but I've got some sort of mental block on the subject.

[auger]

Anyone see this guy?

[uempel]

So, it looks like the magnetic pull will be in the SPY 174 and 173 strikes today.
174 has the ball, but I wouldn't rule out an attempt on 173 at some point, perhaps after the Europe close.
Not a prediction...

Problem with 173 is that resistance at SPX 1734 was broken and it would be quite bearish if SPX falls back below today, a real trap

[Al_Dente]

VIX has actually not confirmed any new SPY highs (by making a new VIX low) since 14 march @ $11.05 (11.05% volatility)
See red box, second panel

Are you suggesting that there are more room for VIX to free fall?

Historically VIX eventually confirms market highs
Except in October 2007