05/30/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

Today's Cobra's Market View BBS Index is overbought...only 2 pages at 15:00.

From time to time in the past, TK used the volume of Slopers'' comments as a surrogate measure of market sentiment.
Maybe a low volume may suggest bulls are getting complacent and on auto pilot instead of checking Cobra's expert opinions.
Just a theory

Yes, I've been using the same method to gauge the sentiment. The visits to our live update forum is down to below 2000 from 7500. It is a sign of complacent.

[Out of Bounds]

Today's Cobra's Market View BBS Index is overbought...only 2 pages at 15:00.

From time to time in the past, TK used the volume of Slopers'' comments as a surrogate measure of market sentiment.
Maybe a low volume may suggest bulls are getting complacent and on auto pilot instead of checking Cobra's expert opinions.
Just a theory

Yes, I've been using the same method to gauge the sentiment. The visits to our live update forum is down to below 2000 from 7500. It is a sign of complacent.

Well, I'm drinking with some friends, so I'm not posting as much.

[sgregs]

I thought it was a massive outbreak of FED fever, a virus fatal to all active bears unless sleeping in a cave awaiting the Cobra top call!

[DumbMoney]

Today's Cobra's Market View BBS Index is overbought...only 2 pages at 15:00.

From time to time in the past, TK used the volume of Slopers'' comments as a surrogate measure of market sentiment.
Maybe a low volume may suggest bulls are getting complacent and on auto pilot instead of checking Cobra's expert opinions.
Just a theory

Yes,but we have to say,the "auto pilot systems" are strong now,bears need to pray for the next week though they(include me) have so many bearish evidences.

[merryme]

Mr. Heck,
Regarding the quote from Marty Chenard below, is there a way to monitor "OPTIONS INFLOWING LIQUIDITY" on an "INTRA-DAY basis?"

"If you feel you really must be in the market no matter what, then pay heed to the Options Inflowing Liquidity and go with it on an intra-day basis for protection."

[K447]

... The visits to our live update forum is down to below 2000 from 7500...

Is that unique visitors?

Per day or week?

[Varaha]

Opening long Index undervalued Puts more than twice Calls = Market Decline

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

QQQ JUN 06 2014 91.00 P - 09:30:00
Bought to Open @ $0.52

Hi Heck, I read opening long Index undervalued Calls more than twice Puts. I calculated the closing average for C/P for Equity = 169.8%, for Index = 51.5%
So Index approximately puts are twice calls on average, put the Q's are declining anyway

ISEE Index (not Equity) call/put ratio is 46%, so *undervalued* Index (not overvalued Equity) put/call is 1/.46 = 217%
.
The key is which undervalued (not overvalued) data set ratio (of three) to use:

Check All, Equity, Index implied volatility premiums versus VIX or VXN, since odds favour buying undervalued premia and selling overvalued.

Raw Index Data at 12:30:

39,438 Calls 85,145 Puts 124,583 Total 46%

If I understand you correctly then, at 9:50 the Indices & ETF Only C/P volume was 7,952/3,543 = 224, therefore implied volatility premium of puts was low because of the preference for calls and one should buy Index puts and sell calls?

No.
(Used to teach university Option course and inverse multiple simultaneous variables not always easy to cipher.)

The first two ISEE readings of the day, undervalued Index/ETF options were on the buy call side (call volume > put volume) and the market went up. Then subsequent readings were on the sell side (put volume >call volume) and market went down.

Implied volatility premiums of specific Indices/ETF options like QQQ or SPY are given by most brokers.
Compares them to VXN or VIX and each other (calls vs puts) to see if they are undervalued or overvalued, then watch what the undervalued classes (All, Equity, Index calls/puts) are doing.
GL
PS Jon and Pete Najarian Option Monsters have a "free" promo book out for shipping and handling:
http://www.howwetradeoptions.com/
(Receive no money ~ met DRJ at TSAAF presentation.)

<< Jon and Pete Najarian Option Monsters have a "free" promo book out for shipping and handling: >>

Supposedly, Joseph P. Kennedy (1888-1969) knew that it was time to get out of the market in 1929 when his shoeshine boy began giving him stock tips. Contemporary citations have not been found, but the event appears in a 1965 biography of Joseph P. Kennedy.

[Cobra]

the 4th touch and breakout usually should be real.

[gappy]

2 hour. Today or no?

Capture.PNG

Good weekend to Cobra voters.

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:47 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/05 ... ay-update/

[Heck]

Mr. Heck,
Regarding the quote from Marty Chenard below, is there a way to monitor "OPTIONS INFLOWING LIQUIDITY" on an "INTRA-DAY basis?"

"If you feel you really must be in the market no matter what, then pay heed to the Options Inflowing Liquidity and go with it on an intra-day basis for protection."

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

Buy undervalued and sell overvalued according to implied volatility premiums relative to Indices and each other.

Not always right.

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. The first trading day of June is bull friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you in the next thread soon.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Heck]

well, guess that's it for today. The first trading day of June is bull friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you in the next thread soon.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

Nice trading.

[Cobra]

I said the 4th break usually is real. what? only 2 points. 2 points are a lot for a day trader, come on.

[Varaha]

For what its worth I ran a Gibbs sampler that backtests all possible moving average schemes in a 32 - dimension parameter space,
where the outcome is the price in 9 trading days from now.

The (Bayesian) probability that GDX will be up (in 9 trading days from now) is 98.5 %.
The only other really high result I noticed was Fidelity Contrafund which had a probability of 96.2%.

[Royal Flush]

Opening long Index undervalued Puts more than twice Calls = Market Decline

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

QQQ JUN 06 2014 91.00 P - 09:30:00
Bought to Open @ $0.52

Hi Heck, I read opening long Index undervalued Calls more than twice Puts. I calculated the closing average for C/P for Equity = 169.8%, for Index = 51.5%
So Index approximately puts are twice calls on average, put the Q's are declining anyway

ISEE Index (not Equity) call/put ratio is 46%, so *undervalued* Index (not overvalued Equity) put/call is 1/.46 = 217%
.
The key is which undervalued (not overvalued) data set ratio (of three) to use:

Check All, Equity, Index implied volatility premiums versus VIX or VXN, since odds favour buying undervalued premia and selling overvalued.

Raw Index Data at 12:30:

39,438 Calls 85,145 Puts 124,583 Total 46%

If I understand you correctly then, at 9:50 the Indices & ETF Only C/P volume was 7,952/3,543 = 224, therefore implied volatility premium of puts was low because of the preference for calls and one should buy Index puts and sell calls?

No.
(Used to teach university Option course and inverse multiple simultaneous variables not always easy to cipher.)

The first two ISEE readings of the day, undervalued Index/ETF options were on the buy call side (call volume > put volume) and the market went up. Then subsequent readings were on the sell side (put volume >call volume) and market went down.

Implied volatility premiums of specific Indices/ETF options like QQQ or SPY are given by most brokers.
Compares them to VXN or VIX and each other (calls vs puts) to see if they are undervalued or overvalued, then watch what the undervalued classes (All, Equity, Index calls/puts) are doing.
GL
PS Jon and Pete Najarian Option Monsters have a "free" promo book out for shipping and handling:
http://www.howwetradeoptions.com/
(Receive no money ~ met DRJ at TSAAF presentation.)

Thanks but Amazon readers give the book 2 out of 5, I think I'll give it a pass.
http://www.amazon.com/Options-Building- ... ewpoints=1

[Daniel]

UUP 18-day strong dog.

Dollar strength is not hurting equity strength. Central bankers are flooding capital into the dollar and it spreads to all dollar-paper asset classes... that would be one reading of this...

[Heck]

Thanks but Amazon readers give the book 2 out of 5, I think I'll give it a pass.
http://www.amazon.com/Options-Building- ... ewpoints=1[/quote]

Suit Yourself

http://www.therichest.com/celebnetworth ... net-worth/

GL trading