08/15/2014 Live Update

[tsf]

Maybe people didn't believe this chart? When VXV pushes to a new high and VIX does not, it is not only rare but incredibly bullish, and the scenario played out exactly as expected...with more to come.

Thank you, cletus. Please continue posting.

[TraderGirl]

Just speculating...perhaps SPY gets down to the intraday p-bar at 194.5, while we see trannies and IWM see a lower low???

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

Near good entry.

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. some lines to watch.. you could say there's an invs H&S of sorts.. green dashed neckline, higher low, RS... target 12 points... 1962 if they ramp it into the close.. on "some good news".. if not look for lower gap fill? 50d @ 1957ish 20d @ 1951ish

[BullBear52x]

/ES one last sell here. bears need to see <1944.25

[ALdaytrade]

According to a new SEC 13-F filing, George Soros cranked up his put option position on SPY…
Soros now holds puts on 11.29 million shares of SPY, up from 1.6 million three months ago
http://www.businessinsider.com/george-s ... ing%20Bell

It looks like the market is paying attention to Soros.

He's net long. If its paying attention to him than we should be going back up

I do not think too many will want to be long over the weekend. This situation will flare up.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... raine.html

Pbar from August 8th at 191.15.

"George Soros loads up on bearish market bet" CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101923426

[BullBear52x]

Bearish signs on hourly.

Thanks BB52x

[gappy]

5 minute.

Capture.PNG

[Cobra]

I'm neutral. break the blue line above would make me believe 100% mm.

[MrMiyagi]

SPY closing green today, I say 74% chance.


ps gambling is not for anyone. this is not gambling. i'm just kidding. no actual bets will occur.

[q2model]

SPY closing green today, I say 74% chance.


ps gambling is not for anyone. this is not gambling. i'm just kidding. no actual bets will occur.

Where is 74% coming from?

[MrMiyagi]

Where is 74% coming from?

Just a random number...

[Denali92]

As it is late in the day, I will just post my first piece of opex day research here:

Friday High for opex week and we close down for the day – this essentially NEVER HAPPENS!!! So we are either going to have a BIG RALLY in the next two hours or we have just two instances out of 30 to guide us!

There have been 30 Friday opex week highs out of 92 opex weeks since 2007. Only TWICE has Friday been the high of the week and we have closed down for the day. Once in March 2010 – the SPX was down 5pts and the other time was March 2014 when we were also down 5pts on the day. In March 2010, we bottomed on the Monday and continued the strong rally. In March 2014, we fell a total of 42 pts over 6 days.

So barring a BIG rally, we are in near uncharted territory for this week’s price action with really just March 2014 – which had that FOMC misdirection trade as a guide.

-D

[tonghu]

feel like the third leg is very possible

[BullBear52x]

still betting on bear flag to play out.

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

[Cobra]

breakout. 100% mm possible.

[tsf]

SPY closing green today, I say 74% chance.


ps gambling is not for anyone. this is not gambling. i'm just kidding. no actual bets will occur.

Very good. Thank you.

[tsf]

As it is late in the day, I will just post my first piece of opex day research here:

Friday High for opex week and we close down for the day – this essentially NEVER HAPPENS!!! So we are either going to have a BIG RALLY in the next two hours or we have just two instances out of 30 to guide us!

There have been 30 Friday opex week highs out of 92 opex weeks since 2007. Only TWICE has Friday been the high of the week and we have closed down for the day. Once in March 2010 – the SPX was down 5pts and the other time was March 2014 when we were also down 5pts on the day. In March 2010, we bottomed on the Monday and continued the strong rally. In March 2014, we fell a total of 42 pts over 6 days.

So barring a BIG rally, we are in near uncharted territory for this week’s price action with really just March 2014 – which had that FOMC misdirection trade as a guide.

-D

Thank you for sharing your valuable research !

[BullBear52x]

come to papa. Tick tock tick tock...