12/12/2015 Weekend Update

[Unique]

E-mini S&P 500 Futures Weekend: Keep It Simple Stupid Series – Bear Train vs. Deadcat Bounce

http://aapltechnicals.blogspot.ca/2015/ ... it_13.html

[gappy]

Hourly.

Capture.PNG

Hopefully a 4-8 handle pump this week leading to new Santa rally highs to be faded w/ the gap below as a target early next year. Or the opposite. a) Reward has to be > risk b) $ is accrued by holding c) Liquidity is always repaid d) Price always returns to the cloud Vote Cobra. glta

[Al_Dente]

Yeowch…
This is not Friday; this is a YEAR-TO-DATE Heat Map of junk bonds
[courtesy Citi via zh]
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... eatmap.jpg

[nikman]

Gappy, 40-80 points up from here? 40 points maybe, but 80 points seems implausible.

Hourly.

Capture.PNG

Hopefully a 4-8 handle pump this week leading to new Santa rally highs to be faded w/ the gap below as a target early next year. Or the opposite. a) Reward has to be > risk b) $ is accrued by holding c) Liquidity is always repaid d) Price always returns to the cloud Vote Cobra. glta

[gappy]

Gappy, 40-80 points up from here? 40 points maybe, but 80 points seems implausible.

Hourly.

Capture.PNG

Hopefully a 4-8 handle pump this week leading to new Santa rally highs to be faded w/ the gap below as a target early next year. Or the opposite. a) Reward has to be > risk b) $ is accrued by holding c) Liquidity is always repaid d) Price always returns to the cloud Vote Cobra. glta

Ya, my bad. Was looking at 2090 spx when the fifty ma last lost it's mojo. Off to a jumping bean start with the carry trade now. 5 minute:

Capture.PNG

glty

[Trades with cats]

By JON HILSENRATH
Updated Dec. 13, 2015 7:16 p.m. ET
12 COMMENTS
Federal Reserve officials are likely to raise their benchmark short-term interest rate from near zero Wednesday, expecting to slowly ratchet it higher to above 3% in three years.

But that’s if all goes as planned. Their big worry is they’ll end up right back at zero. -snip

All you need to know, a Sunday night special signalling that they are willing to reverse the rate increase at any time. Gosh, da ya think that junk bond heat map or the PBOC going to a basket of currencies has anything to do with this?

Drinking game for this week, have a beer everytime you read Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns. Have a shot everytime someone links videos of Cramer saying Bear and Lehman are fine, nothing to worry about.

[daytradingES]

LONDON (Reuters) - Crude oil futures fell for a seventh straight session on Monday, their longest losing streak since mid-2014, on growing fears that the global oil glut would worsen in the months to come in a pricing wars between key producers.

Brent crude fell below $38 a barrel for the first time since December 2008 on Friday and U.S. crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) , sank to around $35 for the first time since February 2009.

Front month WTI was down 26 cents at $35.36 a barrel by 1047 GMT, while Brent was down 46 cents to $37.47 a barrel.

Both benchmarks have fallen every day since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Dec. 4 abandoned its output ceiling. In the past six sessions, they have shed more than 13 percent each.

OPEC has been pumping near record levels since last year in an attempt to drive higher-cost producers such as U.S. shale firms out of the market.

New supply is likely to hit the market early next year as OPEC member Iran ramps up production once sanctions are lifted as expected following the July agreement on its disputed nuclear program.

"All new production will be earmarked for exports," BMI Research said in a note. "In addition to volumes released from storage, Iran will be able to increase crude oil and condensates exports by a maximum of 700,000 b/d by end-2016," it said.

Iran's crude oil exports are set to hit a six-month high in December as buyers ramp up purchases in expectation that sanctions against the country will be lifted early next year.

Tehran is on track to ship 1.26 million barrels a day (bpd) of crude this month, according to an industry source with knowledge of tanker loading schedules.

Iranian news agency Shana quoted on Monday manager director of Iran's Central Oil Fields Company, Salbali Karimi, as saying Iran's cost of production stood $1-$1.5 per barrel, in a clear indication its output would remain competitive under any price scenario.

Gulf producers and Russia have previously said they would not cut output even if prices fell to $20 per barrel.

On Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the global supply glut was likely to deepen next year and put more pressure on prices. But it said it didn't believe the world would run out of storage capacity [EIA/]

OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note Monday.

"Almost the entirety of added supplies in 2016 will come from Iran, Iraq and Saudi," it said.



(Reporting by Aaron Sheldrick; Editing by William Hardy)
Sun, 13 Dec 2015 20:16:00 -0500

[daytradingES]

Key support (chart is March ES 4 hour)