01/12/2016 Live Update

[DellGriffith]

One interesting thing about the bull side is that powerful drops like this dont last very long before a powerful rebound comes. The 2008 crash was 5 days before a massive rebound. The 2011 waterfall drop was 9 days before a massive rebound. Something between 5-9 is the norm for these things.

We're in day 7 on this thing. We should have a powerful rebound at any time.

So we've been conditioned to think.. What if it doesn't rebound, and keeps going down to 1800-1850. It's a good possibility at this point with crude headed to $25.

I think before it does, we need a strong rebound. 2008 kept going lower, but not before a very huge dead cat bounce.

[BullBear52x]

Next dip on 5 min. Papa bear will be challenged. that's where the stress free hedge will occur.

[DellGriffith]

October 13th and 14th of 2008 was a huge deadcat bounce. Just eyeballing it, it looks like it retraced like 50% of the entire drop. In two days. Then it crashed again. It can't just go down all at once.

[josephli]

TLT new HOD.. mind the sloppy invs H&S VIX retest.. yeah, yeah.. I know.. crazy.. target 53.50.. if she holds and goes.. Wearing your crash helmets I hope..

boss, in your opinion and experience does technical analysis work on VIX?

[josephli]

One interesting thing about the bull side is that powerful drops like this dont last very long before a powerful rebound comes. The 2008 crash was 5 days before a massive rebound. The 2011 waterfall drop was 9 days before a massive rebound. Something between 5-9 is the norm for these things.

We're in day 7 on this thing. We should have a powerful rebound at any time.

So we've been conditioned to think.. What if it doesn't rebound, and keeps going down to 1800-1850. It's a good possibility at this point with crude headed to $25.

In my observation, crude does not correlate as well as forex with spy in short term trading. I do not see any huge move on the forex as yet.
that said, tonight we got China's export/import data,

[BullBear52x]

internals are negative. $tick is still negative.

[Denali92]

I am actually thinking the other way right now - without more fear being shown, then the market might not have the basis for a significant rally - just bounces here and there.

-D

You have been right a lot lately....

What troubles me about the bull side (though it makes sense with the opex research) is the VIX, it has fallen a lot... yet, we are barely off the lows.... Something does not add up.... not sure what, but it has me wondering..... Vix option expiry is not till next week (I believe), so there can not be any expiry games going on....

-D

ES: Current projections with white line as primary. 1955 target with 1912 support being the must hold level for bulls.
Below 1912 and I'm most likely dead wrong for being bullish, and it leads to 1900->1892 retest

As I previously discuss with Al Dente, VIX is sum of OTM options (with coefficient). Volatility compression lead to quick drop of VIX , but not necessarily to a big pop of SPY.

[Cobra]

so far so good but bulls must exceed mini target.

[fehro]

TLT new HOD.. mind the sloppy invs H&S VIX retest.. yeah, yeah.. I know.. crazy.. target 53.50.. if she holds and goes.. Wearing your crash helmets I hope..

boss, in your opinion and experience does technical analysis work on VIX?

Yes, but the patterns, trend lines and targets get a tad sloppy.. but "usually" work .. if the indexes support the thesis. Crazy cup and handle in 2007/8 in the VIX posted a crazy target back in Oct 2007, not here elsewhere.. seemed crazy at the time..got laughed at.. but as you know.. it played out. This is not as clean, but the Indexes are showing major topping patterns. And seems VIX moves first.. goes crazy.. then Indexes follow.. the spike high in VIX was far from the 2009 lows. Fear first, then despair/ complacency. Weekly fwiw.

[uempel]

Fed on Wednesday: Does anybody know: will there be a press conference by Yellen tomorrow? Or is it only a press release?

WHAT are you talking about???

FOMC meeting is not until Jan 26 - 27th..... And NO press conference! Next up is the ECB next Thursday, the 21st.

-D

Sorry, too many beers with Al_Dente last night. We stayed at the Totò until well after midnight

[daytradingES]

late start
very tired lately -sore back etc
@shm
higher confidence in HZ.
almost entered it - if ready it would have been a sell (though not "top of hill" - probably have to wait 3 to 6 TD for that).
lower confidence in LZ - so in cases like this Range rule applies.(multiple estimates but with large o/n range should be lower than default est so going with 36.25)

@shm
selling HZ would have been good trade.
Once short range rule (RR) is calculated e.g. below - this give target (the "green") but you close only with other indicators when they confirm you are at the low. With multiple contracts take 2/3 off at target.

(so initial low est is updated with RR once you know that FE=HE)

@shm 12:17 PM 1/12/2016
notice the reg channel widening
Earlier it was very tight in the first part of the downtrend
This is another indicating of getting towards the bottom
(It is widening because the retracements are stronger)

[Xian]

Hey Guys, how's it going? Have I missed anything?

[Xian]

One interesting thing about the bull side is that powerful drops like this dont last very long before a powerful rebound comes. The 2008 crash was 5 days before a massive rebound. The 2011 waterfall drop was 9 days before a massive rebound. Something between 5-9 is the norm for these things.

We're in day 7 on this thing. We should have a powerful rebound at any time.

So we've been conditioned to think.. What if it doesn't rebound, and keeps going down to 1800-1850. It's a good possibility at this point with crude headed to $25.

With Pat on this one— looks like a quick trip to the mid-1800s at some point soon.

[Xian]

Old but goodie from HBR: Manage Your Energy, Not Your Time

https://hbr.org/2007/10/manage-your-ene ... -your-time

[Unique]

ES: Bear train bias now. Deadcat bounce setup is most likely dead in the waters as long as stays below 1925.

Facts: Daily+Weekly bear train context. This morning hourly 100SMA major resistance was rejected by bears as the bulls hit the immediate targets of 1933-1943 from last night's projections.

Currently, below 1HR 20EMA = weak, 15m 20EMA bear train reload shorts setup.

Stuck in between 1925- 1909 for now with bearish bias. I'm going to look to short under 1909 for 1900 and 1892 targets and MAYBE scalp buy above 1925.
Le

[josephli]

Fed on Wednesday: Does anybody know: will there be a press conference by Yellen tomorrow? Or is it only a press release?

WHAT are you talking about???

FOMC meeting is not until Jan 26 - 27th..... And NO press conference! Next up is the ECB next Thursday, the 21st.

-D

Sorry, too many beers with Al_Dente last night. We stayed at the Totò until well after midnight

T.png

are you guys all from NYC?

[daytradingES]

Boss, i vaguely remember your chart is volume-price chart?

No this chart is not price volume
It is a simple 8 min candlestick chart

(I "draw" the green bands on from my estimates - but you could achieve the same thing by drawing green boxes 3pts wide where I indicated the HZ and LZ are (usually given in the morning) or just put a line at estimated high and low.

IHiH

Note to everyone I don't always have time to read thread so I may miss a question directed to me.

[Al_Dente]

Hey Guys, how's it going? Have I missed anything?

hey welcome back
stick around
it's getting interesting

[finman66]

[MrMiyagi]

Should I just stop posting these?

spy