01/16/2016 Weekend Update

[DellGriffith]

What I find interesting is that, the longer these streaks go, the more BEARISH traders seem to get. We're on day 49. There's serious danger of a huge relief rally at any moment now. Yet, traders are more bearish than ever. They seem to expect things will tip over NOW, on day 49, to SPY 1600 or something. I've seen those predicitons. That's like saying things are worse now than they were in 2008. That seems silly to me. I loaded up on calls instead and I think its the right move. My soul is ready.

Yes dandruff wars saw head and shoulders win , given few support levels between here and below , it is possible H s plays out and we slide..but think oversold levels long in tooth...

New low next week or 2 spy 182/3 (uempel thursday?)
Bounce to 198 spy dead cat super resistance there..
Then big time vix moves ...

If you want the bearish view:

This is the "perfect storm" of economic disaster.

1. China is in the middle of an economic collapse. The global paradigm is changing. Their fall affects global markets and is punishing us.
2. The Fed is raising interest rates in the face of China's collapse and they will be laughed at for decades for it.

The bearish view is these combined freak events means we keep falling (and set a new all time record on daily SPY for consecutive days without hitting the upper bb)

[fehro]

Daily/Weekly candles.. so very weak weeklies.. TLT strong move over downtrend, VIX sitting testing long term downtrend as well. Dailies.. some possible support… not ideal.

[fehro]

Industry % Weeklies. Loads of red. Huge volume on SPY Friday.. near the Aug levels, -7.88% already for the year, RUT -11%, GLD +2%, TLT +4%.

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

CPC/CPCE - Extreme levels 1.52/1.92, watching for divergence on McClellan for/near bounce zone - "dead cat variety".

[fehro]

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily - still has more room to the downside for the indexes, if it wants it.

[fehro]

Yeilds

[fehro]

Yields v2 - IRX was flashing a warning sign in late Nov/early Dec

Dec 12 - viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1884&p=209166&hilit=irx#p209166

Dec 5 - viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1876&p=208368&hilit=irx#p208368

[fehro]

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX) W/D
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX) W/D

[user13]

Does anyone have a 5min chart (preferably from stockcharts) of the 2010 flash crash?

TIA!

[tapesense]

Does anyone have a 5min chart (preferably from stockcharts) of the 2010 flash crash?

TIA!

Flash crash 2010, complete with phantom bar to lows. TOS data

https://twitter.com/tapesense/status/590911774364336128

For current targets, reversal of first quarter 2015 monthlies points to 1820. Break of 1813 low points to 25% decline from ATH. AAPL has a similar setup pointing to 70. I'd call it all a healthy retrace of the runaway monthly drive, if we weren't running on free money. Given that, it seems we may leave highs behind for some years of wandering

[josephli]

two thing to note here:
1.Mid term red channel mostly intact with twice failed break out by bull.
2. Short term cyan channel small breach on the downside, which is good counter trend opportunity for bull.
overall, too early to call bottom has been in, and with China GDP data on monday night, bear may strike again on Tuesday early session. we will then see whether the market would bottom.
bear first target spy 196.7, second target 195.5, third target 194.5.

[rhight]

Hey folks, I haven't posted in 18 months or more, I lurk once in awhile and have noticed the loyal crowd is still posting. That's great! I'm a swing to intermediate trader, and still in it. Included is an image with my buy signals from the past two years. In early 2014 a buy signal was followed by one last flush, and then the second signal caught the uptrend. The signal in late August 2015 came too late (8/27) and I was caught in the meat grinder. Otherwise it's fairly spot on. I just went long on Friday at 1876 (SSO) with an agressive entry after my system generated a Buy on Thursday, and then again on Friday. Robert Miner says that if your method gives you a buy, then you have to buy, or you might as well not have a system! We will see, but my money is on the line. I have a stop below the LOD, so I hope we don't gap down big on Tuesday morning! If so I'll re-enter long at some point soon, unless the market is in some sort of crazy crash scenario. This time could be different because of the last two bear markets that are so clear on the charts.

There is a long term system I heard espoused by some old-timer around 2009 that simply used the Monthly 8 and 13 EMA cross. If January were to close where it is now, this month would mark the bear cross of those two averages. In the last two instances (2000, 2008) price never closed back above the monthly 13EMA until the bear was over. Check it out.

20% long, 0.5% at risk.

[jademann]

Possibly the selling is about finished. I refer you to the VIX pattern which occurred last July
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p ... 1309525406

My first vix target would be ~22 which probably coincides with a test of the spy upper channel, then we will see.

[daytradingES]

sp 500
<200d ma

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php ... f6263a01d0

this file is an htm file which I renamed to txt - so you would save it and then rename it back to htm extension
If is a table of the sp500 sort by percentage amts < their 200d ma (with links to each component.

[daytradingES]

doh!

[jademann]

Street.com calling for a bounce.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13418329 ... _ven=YAHOO

[josephli]

Possibly h&s pattern on USD/JPY. neckline level 116-116.5. We still have some room.
Short term wise, classic low high/double top break down target 116.2.
so bottom not in.
if H&S breaks, we will see u.s. equities big drop. though I speculate the neckline won't break this time, we will have to see.

[DellGriffith]

Hey folks, I haven't posted in 18 months or more, I lurk once in awhile and have noticed the loyal crowd is still posting. That's great! I'm a swing to intermediate trader, and still in it. Included is an image with my buy signals from the past two years. In early 2014 a buy signal was followed by one last flush, and then the second signal caught the uptrend. The signal in late August 2015 came too late (8/27) and I was caught in the meat grinder. Otherwise it's fairly spot on. I just went long on Friday at 1876 (SSO) with an aggressive entry after my system generated a Buy on Thursday, and then again on Friday. Robert Miner says that if your method gives you a buy, then you have to buy, or you might as well not have a system! We will see, but my money is on the line. I have a stop below the LOD, so I hope we don't gap down big on Tuesday morning! If so I'll re-enter long at some point soon, unless the market is in some sort of crazy crash scenario. This time could be different because of the last two bear markets that are so clear on the charts.

There is a long term system I heard espoused by some old-timer around 2009 that simply used the Monthly 8 and 13 EMA cross. If January were to close where it is now, this month would mark the bear cross of those two averages. In the last two instances (2000, 2008) price never closed back above the monthly 13EMA until the bear was over. Check it out.

20% long, 0.5% at risk.

Thanks for posting! I admit I cannot see what gives you your buy signals (altho I see the buy signals as blue arrows) based upon the chart that you posted. However, you said it gave you a buy signal on BOTH thursday and friday, which is interesting because my own system I used to go long at the close on thursday also gave me big buy signals on thursday and friday.

edit: actually, when I compare the two, almost all of your blue arrow buy signals correspond to all of the buy signals my system generated (the system I used to make the buy). There are a few places of disagreement but its almost exact.

Best of luck!

[josephli]

Street.com calling for a bounce.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13418329 ... _ven=YAHOO

still, it is the timing. everything points to a relief rally soon, but it does not exclude a capitulation day coming first. we will have to see. the risk is not worth the early entry.

[josephli]

Suggest that all the bulls who want to fight the bear google: Lawrence D. Fink, CNBC Squawkbox Friday Jan 15th. The boss of BlackRock sees another 10% to the downside. BlackRock is one on the biggest Moneymanagers and can influence the markets.

Fighting the trend here is playing rouge/noir in Roulette. The odds are 50/50 and that's not attractive.

Uempel, I agree with his judgement. these guys however has much longer investment horizon than us. he might be talking about months away.