04/02/2016 Weekend Update

[Al_Dente]

MEDIUM TERM+
Of all the many Rydex Ratios, this one works for me.
Whenever I see Rydex folks throwing money into their Money Market Accounts (ratio up), I assume SPY down.
Conversely, when they move funds out of their MMA (ratio down, like now) they could be doing that to buy stocks, bonds, internationals, etc. etc., but I assume SPY up, and the recent lines prove that out…
This chart is weekly, it’s not a timing signal, just a guide. Rydex folks may be a bit early or a bit late.
But the reason I’m posting it now is that the ratio is nearing extreme lows …. and contrarians are taking note....

[Out of Bounds]

MEDIUM TERM+
Of all the many Rydex Ratios, this one works for me.
Whenever I see Rydex folks throwing money into their Money Market Accounts (ratio up), I assume SPY down.
Conversely, when they move funds out of their MMA (ratio down, like now) they could be doing that to buy stocks, bonds, internationals, etc. etc., but I assume SPY up, and the recent lines prove that out…
This chart is weekly, it’s not a timing signal, just a guide. Rydex folks may be a bit early or a bit late.
But the reason I’m posting it now is that the ratio is nearing extreme lows …. and contrarians are taking note....

The attachment 43rydex.png.png is no longer available

Al, I really like this chart and started thinking about it. That led to me tinkering around with it and I have really had fun with it this afternoon.

I inverted the Rydex (light grey) and overlayed the $SPX. Then I threw on a MACD and totally changed the parameters. Then I put on a couple of horizontal lines at 100+/-.
Now I have BUY and SELL signals for when the oscillator crosses the lines towards the mean. They aren't bad buy and sell signals. They all show a profitable trade within the next few days (except for 1 maybe - I can't tell)

[Al_Dente]

Al, I really like this chart and started thinking about it. That led to me tinkering around with it and I have really had fun with it this afternoon.
I inverted the Rydex (light grey) and overlayed the $SPX. Then I threw on a MACD and totally changed the parameters. Then I put on a couple of horizontal lines at 100+/-.
Now I have BUY and SELL signals for when the oscillator crosses the lines towards the mean. They aren't bad buy and sell signals. They all show a profitable trade within the next few days (except for 1 maybe - I can't tell)

That’s very cool thanks boss
See what you can do with this one:
Rydex folks still have plenty in BEAR funds
Weekly chart. Symbol: !ASETBEARI

[Out of Bounds]

Al, I really like this chart and started thinking about it. That led to me tinkering around with it and I have really had fun with it this afternoon.
I inverted the Rydex (light grey) and overlayed the $SPX. Then I threw on a MACD and totally changed the parameters. Then I put on a couple of horizontal lines at 100+/-.
Now I have BUY and SELL signals for when the oscillator crosses the lines towards the mean. They aren't bad buy and sell signals. They all show a profitable trade within the next few days (except for 1 maybe - I can't tell)

That’s very cool thanks boss
See what you can do with this one:
Rydex folks still have plenty in BEAR funds
Weekly chart. Symbol: !ASETBEARI

43bear funds.png.png

won't get finished tonight! But I'll see what I can find in there.

[Out of Bounds]

Al, I really like this chart and started thinking about it. That led to me tinkering around with it and I have really had fun with it this afternoon.
I inverted the Rydex (light grey) and overlayed the $SPX. Then I threw on a MACD and totally changed the parameters. Then I put on a couple of horizontal lines at 100+/-.
Now I have BUY and SELL signals for when the oscillator crosses the lines towards the mean. They aren't bad buy and sell signals. They all show a profitable trade within the next few days (except for 1 maybe - I can't tell)

That’s very cool thanks boss
See what you can do with this one:
Rydex folks still have plenty in BEAR funds
Weekly chart. Symbol: !ASETBEARI

The attachment 43bear funds.png.png is no longer available

Looks like a contrarian indicator. Everyone piles in at the bottom and sells at the top.
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Inverted bear assets moves with SPY. But look at the far right and the increase in assets in July and August. The corresponding drop in assets was less than it should have been (TWICE) - so it argues against those who are claiming that the latest rally was short covering.