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02/03/2016 Live Update
Re: 02/03/2016 Live Update
josephli wrote:because there is basically no trend swing-wise. for consolidation counter-trend has better RR ratio than trend following, until there is a trend.jademann wrote:Anytime I chase a rally or sell off recently it comes back to bite me. IS this time different?
Agreed. The problem is knowing when such times begin and end.
My comments were dictated to me by homie the clown
Re: 02/03/2016 Live Update
maybe just a hanging man as it is close to the swing top?fehro wrote:SPX .. battle for the daily, bulls want a hammer, bears a doji.. flat close.. VIX holding support, SPX 60m channel restest bottom right.
Re: 02/03/2016 Live Update
Exactly!jademann wrote:josephli wrote:because there is basically no trend swing-wise. for consolidation counter-trend has better RR ratio than trend following, until there is a trend.jademann wrote:Anytime I chase a rally or sell off recently it comes back to bite me. IS this time different?
Agreed. The problem is knowing when such times begin and end.
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Trades with cats
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Re:
For the record, have any OPEC members other than Saudi and maybe the gulf states ever actually cut?MrMiyagi wrote:Venezuela Says 6 OPEC, Non-OPEC Countries Agree on Emergency Meeting.daytradingES wrote:any news on CL move up?
Probably nothing will come of it, why would they cut when Saudi Overlords keep pumping?
Re: 02/03/2016 Live Update
maybe pullback has small legs?
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Re: 02/03/2016 Live Update
back to no man's land 
Re:
the article did not name all the 6 country other than Venezuela, Iran & Russia. Saudi is the key. if the other three members are angola, nigeria, lybia then the meeting make little sense to the market.MrMiyagi wrote:Yes, in the past they have. Twice in 1998, and 2008 I think most recent cut.Trades with cats wrote:For the record, have any OPEC members other than Saudi and maybe the gulf states ever actually cut?
Re: 02/03/2016 Live Update
members only update at 3:52 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/02 ... ay-update/
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/02 ... ay-update/
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Re: 02/03/2016 Live Update
well, guess that's it for today. Thursday tomorrow has been mixed. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.
before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp
before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp
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daytradingES
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Re: 02/03/2016 Live Update
6:52 AM 2/4/2016
Dir 0 = leg 1
FE est 1897.75
Dir 30 -1
Trend -1
Projected 1896.50
-----
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -1,000 to 277,000, previous -16,000 to 278,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -28,000
to 2.240 million, previous +49,000 to 2.268 million.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
New Claims - Level 278 K 280 K 274 K to 290 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 283.00 K
New Claims - Change -16 K
Recent History Of This Indicator
Initial jobless claims fell back sharply in the January 23 week, down 16,000 to 278,000 and helping to make the prior week's six-month high at
294,000 an outlier, at least hopefully an outlier. But continuing claims in this report did not fall back, hitting a 5-month high at 2.268 million and,
together with the trend for initial claims, are pointing at less strength for the January employment report. Forecasters see initial claims coming in at
280,000 in the January 30 week.
1000 ET Dec factory orders expected -2.8%, Nov -0.2% and -0.3% ex transportation. Dec capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft & parts,
Nov -0.3%.
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.01%) are up +0.14% and European stocks are up 0.63% as a selloff in the dollar index to a 3-month low underpins
crude oil and metal prices and fuels a rally in energy and commodity producer stocks. Gains in European stocks were limited as automakers
retreated, led by a nearly 4% decline in Daimler AG, after the automaker said growth will slow down in 2016 with only "slight' gains in revenue and
earnings. As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian
stocks settled mostly higher: Japan -0.85%, Hong Kong +1.01%, China +1.53%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia +2.12%, Singapore +0.30%, South
Korea +1.72%, India +0.48%. Japan's Nikkei index closed lower as export stocks sold off after a rally in the yen to a 2-week high against the dollar
reduced the earnings prospects of exporters.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.60%) is down -0.54% at a 3-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.64% at a 3-1/4 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is
down -0.23%.
Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.07%) are down -3 ticks.
The European Commission cut its Eurozone 2016 GDP forecast to 1.7% from a Nov projection of 1.8% and slashed its Eurozone 2016 CPI estimate
to 0.5% from a Nov forecast of 1.0%.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren's speech to the Financial Stability Institute of the Bank for International
Settlements in Cape Town on progress addressing “Too Big to Fail,” (2) Jan Challenger job cuts (Dec -27.6% y/y), (3) weekly initial unemployment
claims (expected -1,000 to 277,000, previous -16,000 to 278,000) and continuing claims (expected -28,000 to 2.240 million, previous +49,000 to
2.268 million), (4) Q4 non-farm productivity (expected -2.0%, Q3 +2.2%. Q4 unit labor costs expected +4.1%, Q3 +1.8%), (5) Dallas Fed President
Robert Kaplan's speech on global economic conditions at an event in Dallas, TX, (6) Dec factory orders (expected -2.8%, Nov -0.2% and -0.3% ex
transportation), and (7) Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's speech at an MNI event where she will address questions on Fed economic and
monetary policy.
There are 33 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: News Corp (0.21), Symantec (0.24), Cummins
(2.11), McGraw Hill Financial (1.02), Conoco Phillips (-0.65), ICE Exchange (3.01), Occidental Petroleum (-0.13).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Advanced Inhalation Theraphies (AITP).
Equity conferences this week include: Cowen and Company Aerospace/Defense Conference & Transport Forum on Wed-Thu
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.01%) this morning are up +2.75 points (+0.14%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.50%, Dow Jones +1.13%, Nasdaq -2.18%.
The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed higher on the +205,000 increase in the Jan ADP employment report (stronger than expectations of +193,000)
and a rally in energy producers after crude oil prices recovered from a 1-week low and closed sharply higher. Stocks were undercut by the -2.3
point decline in the Jan ISM non-manufacturing PMI to 53.5, weaker than expectations of -0.2 to 55.1 and the slowest pace of expansion in nearly 2
years.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.07%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYH6 -2.50, FVH6 +1.50. Mar T-notes on Wednesday rallied
to a 1-year nearest-futures high but fell back and closed lower. T-note prices were undercut by the larger than expected increase in the Jan ADP
employment change and reduced safe-haven demand after stocks recovered to close higher. T-note prices were supported by the weaker-than-
expected Jan ISM non-manufacturing PMI report.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.60%) this morning is down -0.522 (-0.54%) at a 3-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0071 (+0.64%) at a 3-1/4 month
high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.27 (-0.23%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -1.584 (-1.60%), EUR/USD +0.0186 (+1.70%), USD/JPY -2.07 (-1.73%).
The dollar index on Wednesday slumped to a 3-month low and closed lower on U.S. growth concerns that may keep the Fed from further raising
interest rates after the Jan non-manufacturing PMI expanded at the slowest pace in nearly 2 years. The dollar index was also undercut by strength
in EUR/USD which rallied to a 3-month high after the Eurozone Jan composite PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 53.6.
Mar crude oil (CLH16 +0.46%) this morning is up +7 cents (+0.22%) and Mar gasoline (RBH16 +2.42%) is up +0.0192 (+1.89%). Wednesday's closes:
CLH6 +2.87 (+9.61%), RBH6 +0.0273 (+2.73%). Mar crude oil and gasoline closed sharply higher on Wednesday as Mar crude rebounded from a 1-
week low and Mar gasoline recovered from a 7-year low. Crude oil prices were boosted by short-covering after the dollar index tumbled to a 3-
month low and by the -0.1% decline in U.S. crude production in the week of Jan 29 to a 1-month low of 9.214 million bpd. Crude oil prices were
undercut by the +7.79 million bbl surge in EIA crude inventories to a record high of 502.7 million bbl and by the +5.94 million bbl increase in EIA
gasoline stockpiles to a record 254.4 million bbl.
http://www.barchart.com/newsletters/usmorningcall
-----------
Futures rise as oil prices steady, dollar weakens
By Tanya Agrawal
(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were higher on Thursday as oil and commodities got a boost from a weakening dollar.
* The dollar index .DXY> which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, hit 96.65, its lowest level in more than three
months.
* The index fell sharply after weak U.S. data and comments from a Fed policymaker signaled that further rate hikes could be delayed.
* Oil prices held on to most of their previous day's gains of 7 percent as the dollar weakened and Venezuela appeared to be gaining support from
more members of OPEC and other producers for a meeting.
* Fed policymaker William Dudley said in an interview published on Wednesday that monetary conditions had tightened since the Fed raised rates
and that rate-setters would have to take this into account.
* The federal fund futures market indicates traders no longer expect a Fed hike this year.
* Stocks globally have had a rough start to 2016, hurt by tepid U.S. growth, falling oil prices, and concern that the world faces a China-led
slowdown.
* Weak corporate earnings have only added to worries. Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings are expected to have fallen 4.4 percent from a year
earlier, according to Thomson Reuters data.
* Weekly unemployment data, due to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that unemployment benefits inched up to 280,000 last week
from 278,000 the prior week. The numbers come before the keenly awaited monthly employment data released by the government on Friday.
* At 10 a.m. ET, data is expected to show a 2.8 percent drop in factory orders in December after a 0.2 percent dip in November.
* GoPro (NASDAQ: GPRO) shares slumped 11.8 percent to $9.45 in premarket trading, a day after the company forecast current-quarter revenue
well below analysts' estimates.
* U.S-listed shares of Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) fell 11.7 percent to $14.73, after the bank reported its first full-year loss since 2008.
* Viacom (NASDAQ: VIAB) jumped 7.5 to $48 after chairman Sumner Redstone stepped down from his executive role at CBS (NYSE: CBS), igniting
speculation that the aging mogul will step down from his role at Viacom too.
Futures snapshot at 7:16 a.m. ET:
* Dow e-minis 1YMc1> were up 40 points, or 0.25 percent, with 41,511 contracts changing hands.
* S&P 500 e-minis were up 3.75 points, or 0.2 percent, with 247,172 contracts traded.
* Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 10 points, or 0.24 percent, on volume of 34,663 contracts.
Dir 0 = leg 1
FE est 1897.75
Dir 30 -1
Trend -1
Projected 1896.50
-----
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -1,000 to 277,000, previous -16,000 to 278,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -28,000
to 2.240 million, previous +49,000 to 2.268 million.
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
New Claims - Level 278 K 280 K 274 K to 290 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 283.00 K
New Claims - Change -16 K
Recent History Of This Indicator
Initial jobless claims fell back sharply in the January 23 week, down 16,000 to 278,000 and helping to make the prior week's six-month high at
294,000 an outlier, at least hopefully an outlier. But continuing claims in this report did not fall back, hitting a 5-month high at 2.268 million and,
together with the trend for initial claims, are pointing at less strength for the January employment report. Forecasters see initial claims coming in at
280,000 in the January 30 week.
1000 ET Dec factory orders expected -2.8%, Nov -0.2% and -0.3% ex transportation. Dec capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft & parts,
Nov -0.3%.
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.01%) are up +0.14% and European stocks are up 0.63% as a selloff in the dollar index to a 3-month low underpins
crude oil and metal prices and fuels a rally in energy and commodity producer stocks. Gains in European stocks were limited as automakers
retreated, led by a nearly 4% decline in Daimler AG, after the automaker said growth will slow down in 2016 with only "slight' gains in revenue and
earnings. As expected, the BOE kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds. Asian
stocks settled mostly higher: Japan -0.85%, Hong Kong +1.01%, China +1.53%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia +2.12%, Singapore +0.30%, South
Korea +1.72%, India +0.48%. Japan's Nikkei index closed lower as export stocks sold off after a rally in the yen to a 2-week high against the dollar
reduced the earnings prospects of exporters.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.60%) is down -0.54% at a 3-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.64% at a 3-1/4 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is
down -0.23%.
Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.07%) are down -3 ticks.
The European Commission cut its Eurozone 2016 GDP forecast to 1.7% from a Nov projection of 1.8% and slashed its Eurozone 2016 CPI estimate
to 0.5% from a Nov forecast of 1.0%.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren's speech to the Financial Stability Institute of the Bank for International
Settlements in Cape Town on progress addressing “Too Big to Fail,” (2) Jan Challenger job cuts (Dec -27.6% y/y), (3) weekly initial unemployment
claims (expected -1,000 to 277,000, previous -16,000 to 278,000) and continuing claims (expected -28,000 to 2.240 million, previous +49,000 to
2.268 million), (4) Q4 non-farm productivity (expected -2.0%, Q3 +2.2%. Q4 unit labor costs expected +4.1%, Q3 +1.8%), (5) Dallas Fed President
Robert Kaplan's speech on global economic conditions at an event in Dallas, TX, (6) Dec factory orders (expected -2.8%, Nov -0.2% and -0.3% ex
transportation), and (7) Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's speech at an MNI event where she will address questions on Fed economic and
monetary policy.
There are 33 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: News Corp (0.21), Symantec (0.24), Cummins
(2.11), McGraw Hill Financial (1.02), Conoco Phillips (-0.65), ICE Exchange (3.01), Occidental Petroleum (-0.13).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Advanced Inhalation Theraphies (AITP).
Equity conferences this week include: Cowen and Company Aerospace/Defense Conference & Transport Forum on Wed-Thu
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.01%) this morning are up +2.75 points (+0.14%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.50%, Dow Jones +1.13%, Nasdaq -2.18%.
The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed higher on the +205,000 increase in the Jan ADP employment report (stronger than expectations of +193,000)
and a rally in energy producers after crude oil prices recovered from a 1-week low and closed sharply higher. Stocks were undercut by the -2.3
point decline in the Jan ISM non-manufacturing PMI to 53.5, weaker than expectations of -0.2 to 55.1 and the slowest pace of expansion in nearly 2
years.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.07%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYH6 -2.50, FVH6 +1.50. Mar T-notes on Wednesday rallied
to a 1-year nearest-futures high but fell back and closed lower. T-note prices were undercut by the larger than expected increase in the Jan ADP
employment change and reduced safe-haven demand after stocks recovered to close higher. T-note prices were supported by the weaker-than-
expected Jan ISM non-manufacturing PMI report.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.60%) this morning is down -0.522 (-0.54%) at a 3-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0071 (+0.64%) at a 3-1/4 month
high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.27 (-0.23%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -1.584 (-1.60%), EUR/USD +0.0186 (+1.70%), USD/JPY -2.07 (-1.73%).
The dollar index on Wednesday slumped to a 3-month low and closed lower on U.S. growth concerns that may keep the Fed from further raising
interest rates after the Jan non-manufacturing PMI expanded at the slowest pace in nearly 2 years. The dollar index was also undercut by strength
in EUR/USD which rallied to a 3-month high after the Eurozone Jan composite PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 53.6.
Mar crude oil (CLH16 +0.46%) this morning is up +7 cents (+0.22%) and Mar gasoline (RBH16 +2.42%) is up +0.0192 (+1.89%). Wednesday's closes:
CLH6 +2.87 (+9.61%), RBH6 +0.0273 (+2.73%). Mar crude oil and gasoline closed sharply higher on Wednesday as Mar crude rebounded from a 1-
week low and Mar gasoline recovered from a 7-year low. Crude oil prices were boosted by short-covering after the dollar index tumbled to a 3-
month low and by the -0.1% decline in U.S. crude production in the week of Jan 29 to a 1-month low of 9.214 million bpd. Crude oil prices were
undercut by the +7.79 million bbl surge in EIA crude inventories to a record high of 502.7 million bbl and by the +5.94 million bbl increase in EIA
gasoline stockpiles to a record 254.4 million bbl.
http://www.barchart.com/newsletters/usmorningcall
-----------
Futures rise as oil prices steady, dollar weakens
By Tanya Agrawal
(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were higher on Thursday as oil and commodities got a boost from a weakening dollar.
* The dollar index .DXY> which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, hit 96.65, its lowest level in more than three
months.
* The index fell sharply after weak U.S. data and comments from a Fed policymaker signaled that further rate hikes could be delayed.
* Oil prices held on to most of their previous day's gains of 7 percent as the dollar weakened and Venezuela appeared to be gaining support from
more members of OPEC and other producers for a meeting.
* Fed policymaker William Dudley said in an interview published on Wednesday that monetary conditions had tightened since the Fed raised rates
and that rate-setters would have to take this into account.
* The federal fund futures market indicates traders no longer expect a Fed hike this year.
* Stocks globally have had a rough start to 2016, hurt by tepid U.S. growth, falling oil prices, and concern that the world faces a China-led
slowdown.
* Weak corporate earnings have only added to worries. Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings are expected to have fallen 4.4 percent from a year
earlier, according to Thomson Reuters data.
* Weekly unemployment data, due to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that unemployment benefits inched up to 280,000 last week
from 278,000 the prior week. The numbers come before the keenly awaited monthly employment data released by the government on Friday.
* At 10 a.m. ET, data is expected to show a 2.8 percent drop in factory orders in December after a 0.2 percent dip in November.
* GoPro (NASDAQ: GPRO) shares slumped 11.8 percent to $9.45 in premarket trading, a day after the company forecast current-quarter revenue
well below analysts' estimates.
* U.S-listed shares of Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) fell 11.7 percent to $14.73, after the bank reported its first full-year loss since 2008.
* Viacom (NASDAQ: VIAB) jumped 7.5 to $48 after chairman Sumner Redstone stepped down from his executive role at CBS (NYSE: CBS), igniting
speculation that the aging mogul will step down from his role at Viacom too.
Futures snapshot at 7:16 a.m. ET:
* Dow e-minis 1YMc1> were up 40 points, or 0.25 percent, with 41,511 contracts changing hands.
* S&P 500 e-minis were up 3.75 points, or 0.2 percent, with 247,172 contracts traded.
* Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 10 points, or 0.24 percent, on volume of 34,663 contracts.
- Attachments
-
Educational only and not trading advice (EO&NTA)
Good trading to all
Good trading to all
-
Royal Flush
- Posts: 373
- Joined: Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:56 pm
Re: 02/03/2016 Live Update
Broken TL on wedge was back tested last night.