08/31/2011 Intraday Watering

[StrikePrice]

I don't think we can take down 124 but the market appears to be trying to get close. My sell in my long triggered so now waiting to short with other here. I do think we can get as high as 123.85 so not having an itchy trigger finger.

[Tabby]

SPX
A better illustration.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_8383.html

Good luck, folks. Have some family matter to attend to this week.

Thanks 99er. I hope nothing serious.

[auger]

C´mon, now. I am a student too of trading.

Mongoose seriously, you should read the posts more carefully, then. The point is, there was no contradiction in those posts, yesterday.

So not expecting a breakout implies a breakout, but not immediately. And expecting not to breakout implies not a breakout, but not immediately.

Clearly, that's not what he said.

[Mongoose]

I think its important to understand, too, there is no point in pointing out the sun is going to rise just as the dawn breaks. The point in successful and profitable trading is to position oneself prior to an event, or price movement. If one is changing their minds, and hence their position, I think they are looking behind and not in front.

What you're trying to do is still to run before the market.

What you're expecting is someone never changes his call.

I think eventually, you may find those two are not very good idea. That's just from my experiences which has cost me a few hundred thousands. You may of course have different experiences later.

If I understand the term "run before the market" -- it seems to me, the answer is of course. How else to extract money from the market? One cant extract money from the market if one is trading with the market or after the market has expressed itself.
As far expecting someone never to change his call, I dont think thats a correct conclusion. If one is a good trader, on the other hand, if they have to change their mind, then they still should have made money.

When you called a rally for 5 out of seven days that was brilliant. I didnt care about those two days, because there were 5 days of extracting money. The other "run before the market" was the statistic you shared about the when the VIX rises more than 22%, etc.
If thats "run before the market" then yes, exactly.

[Ninja Trader]

unempel

I'm with you, I'd wait for some type of confirmation to short

but I'm generally trading this way

I'm not one to try and pick tops and bottoms, lost some digits playing that over time

[99er]

Thanks, Tabby.

Nothing serious but jeez, Life's A Beach.

[Cobra]

everyone changes their mind less as they improve, this is only logical

but less doesn't mean never, I believe that was the true point here

if people that dont' have experience trading aren't taught that lesson they'll feel a lot of pain before they make any money

surely if you are a student of the market you know exactly what I mean

some of the best traders I know win on 45% of their trades, iow, they have to change their mind all the time, and they still win big on balance since the real key to this game is managing losses, which are a certainty for all traders.

I'm with you. Be a great trader should be willing to change mind at any time. I myself feel a lot "comfortable" trading against myself.

[Cobra]

I think its important to understand, too, there is no point in pointing out the sun is going to rise just as the dawn breaks. The point in successful and profitable trading is to position oneself prior to an event, or price movement. If one is changing their minds, and hence their position, I think they are looking behind and not in front.

What you're trying to do is still to run before the market.

What you're expecting is someone never changes his call.

I think eventually, you may find those two are not very good idea. That's just from my experiences which has cost me a few hundred thousands. You may of course have different experiences later.

If I understand the term "run before the market" -- it seems to me, the answer is of course. How else to extract money from the market? One cant extract money from the market if one is trading with the market or after the market has expressed itself.
As far expecting someone never to change his call, I dont think thats a correct conclusion. If one is a good trader, on the other hand, if they have to change their mind, then they still should have made money.

When you called a rally for 5 out of seven days that was brilliant. I didnt care about those two days, because there were 5 days of extracting money. The other "run before the market" was the statistic you shared about the when the VIX rises more than 22%, etc.
If thats "run before the market" then yes, exactly.

Hmm, agree, there's a balance somewhere. The greatest could do the best balance.

[pady]

I've got to repeat this again and again: break of 1212/15 was immensly important (DMA 377/WMA75). If SPX can stay above that level today (and prove that this is not merely an intraday bounce/bull-trap) this market is heading higher. Possible top for the day is 1240, possible top for the week is 1255. Short only if market tanks down under 1210...

Daily MA 377 ? Weekly MA 75 ? If so, I dont see even the DMA 200 ( 1284 ) close to current prices.

pady

[Bencat]

everyone changes their mind less as they improve, this is only logical

but less doesn't mean never, I believe that was the true point here

if people that dont' have experience trading aren't taught that lesson they'll feel a lot of pain before they make any money

surely if you are a student of the market you know exactly what I mean

some of the best traders I know win on 45% of their trades, iow, they have to change their mind all the time, and they still win big on balance since the real key to this game is managing losses, which are a certainty for all traders.

I'm with you. Be a great trader should be willing to change mind at any time. I myself feel a lot "comfortable" trading against myself.

"change mind at any time" - a great point!

[KENA]

Lets get trading..I change my mind many times. Win some loose some.

[Cobra]

pay attention to Euro. I still have a doubt on bulls as it's impossible for NYMO and T2122 to rise forever. Well, just a cheap talk about doubt, you know me.

[Mongoose]

Cobra, so, if you dont mind, I want to ask questions, and hopefully they will be answered. There are going to be points I will not understand.
On the other hand, there is a lot I know too which I am more than happy to share with others here in the forum.

[Petsamo]

Anyone have an opinion on UNG (nat gas)? Below is the 2 year chart.

[Cobra]

Cobra, so, if you dont mind, I want to ask questions, and hopefully they will be answered. There are going to be points I will not understand.
On the other hand, there is a lot I know too which I am more than happy to share with others here in the forum.

sure ask whatever you like.

[Ninja Trader]

mongoose

I get your point about run before the market but there are all kinds of methods that work so I only agree with you to an extent

running with the market (ie, momentum systems, which there are plenty of) can in fact allow you to extract money from the market while you simply run along with it, there are plenty of trend followers rather than those simply catching a turn.

I think it's fair to say people should use whatever works, there is no 1 method so you pick what fits your personality, however, all methods are going to require adjustments (a change of mind) at one point or another

so many various signals that worked really well for decades into the 2000's became total failures. Why? Maybe too many people started to follow them, perhaps the market evolved, perhaps because of the interconnectedness of markets.... nobody knows for sure.

but I'm still with Cobra in that a trader is going to need to change their mind from time to time. I'd love to believe I'd get so good that I'd never have to but I don't think this is a realistic expectation in markets, as they have this tendency to make the seemingly impossible, possible, all the time.

[jarbo456]

Cobra, so, if you dont mind, I want to ask questions, and hopefully they will be answered. There are going to be points I will not understand.
On the other hand, there is a lot I know too which I am more than happy to share with others here in the forum.

did anyone just see that fat finger on SPY?

i'm seeing a spike to 127.07

[Petsamo]

Bad tick on SPY pointing up.

[Cobra]

still think it's an exhaustion bar, now we have a NRB (narrow range bar) with even higher volume.

[pady]

I've got to repeat this again and again: break of 1212/15 was immensly important (DMA 377/WMA75). If SPX can stay above that level today (and prove that this is not merely an intraday bounce/bull-trap) this market is heading higher. Possible top for the day is 1240, possible top for the week is 1255. Short only if market tanks down under 1210...

Daily MA 377 ? Weekly MA 75 ? If so, I dont see even the DMA 200 ( 1284 ) close to current prices.

pady

My bad. First time I am hearing of '377' and '75'. Cool. Heard of 13/34/20/50/200.


pady