12/22/2018 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 3 weeks in a row, 67% chances lower low ahead the next week.

So this means at least 67% chances today's low was not THE low.

[Al_Dente]

Fear & Greed Index closed at 3... an all-time record low (most extreme fear).
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

[Al_Dente]

REBALANCING ALERT:
Next week, managed portfolios face the famous “Quarterly Portfolio Rebalancing,” wherein the managers under contract to maintain a fixed percentage in stocks/bonds (often 60/40 but it varies), must re-align their portfolios to satisfy their contractual mandate.
Since stocks have vastly underperformed bonds this quarter, these managed portfolios will need to buy stocks and sell bonds to regain their mandated balance. This will happen starting Monday, through the end-of-year Friday 12/28/18, but many managers wait until the last minute (Friday the 28th) to accomplish this.

Wells Fargo calculates roughly “64 billion in equity purchases over the next 5 trading days.”
zh: it “may be the single largest quarter-end pension rebalancing in history.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12- ... to+zero%29

[jademann]

My trading system says it is time to grow a pair and buy the snot out of it:


http://schrts.co/TZBA9X

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX& ... 9075927330

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX& ... 9861036792

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX& ... 4751977204

http://schrts.co/jYCM51

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX& ... 1309525406

I assume this was year end tax selling related which is now over.
I know that many would say that this is Trumps fault and Christmas gift to his people, but I would be forced to agree, shutdown and all..

[Al_Dente]

[tsf]

@jademann,
Thank you for sharing. Does your trading system require $VIX to decline from current level, Elder Impulse to change from green to at least blue,
and re-enters BB(20,2)? Anything else?

My trading system says it is time to grow a pair and buy the snot out of it:
http://schrts.co/TZBA9X
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX& ... 9075927330
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX& ... 9861036792
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX& ... 4751977204
http://schrts.co/jYCM51
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX& ... 1309525406
I assume this was year end tax selling related which is now over.
I know that many would say that this is Trumps fault and Christmas gift to his people, but I would be forced to agree, shutdown and all..

[BullBear52x]

this will get me back into a trade, it's hard to nail the top and bottom, but with a chart like this could be IT

[tsf]

Thank you, BB52x
noob question: How could the complacent volume bar be red when price bar was green?

this will get me back into a trade, it's hard to nail the top and bottom, but with a chart like this could be IT

[tsf]

Bespoke @bespokeinvest Dec 21, 2018
If you're thinking about getting out of equities now, here's a look at the S&P's performance after 10%+ down quarters since WW2:
http://bespokepremium.com

[BullBear52x]

Thank you, BB52x
noob question: How could the complacent volume bar be red when price bar was green?

this will get me back into a trade, it's hard to nail the top and bottom, but with a chart like this could be IT

I just pay attention on total number at the very top and bottom area of extreme, it will not make a hard turn right away could take several days to follow, from here the Up Volume will tell a lot if counter trend will sustain or not.

[tsf]

Thank you, BB52x
noob question: How could the complacent volume bar be red when price bar was green?

this will get me back into a trade, it's hard to nail the top and bottom, but with a chart like this could be IT

I just pay attention on total number at the very top and bottom area of extreme, it will not make a hard turn right away could take several days to follow, from here the Up Volume will tell a lot if counter trend will sustain or not.

BB52x, THANK YOU for the clear chart and the quick reply

[BullBear52x]

Thank you, BB52x
noob question: How could the complacent volume bar be red when price bar was green?

this will get me back into a trade, it's hard to nail the top and bottom, but with a chart like this could be IT

I just pay attention on total number at the very top and bottom area of extreme, it will not make a hard turn right away could take several days to follow, from here the Up Volume will tell a lot if counter trend will sustain or not.

BB52x, THANK YOU for the clear chart and the quick reply

here another way to look at them using CCI on up/dn vol. if this counter trend will sustain I need to see more high CCI reading on the up volume to say it's reliable buying.

[tsf]

Thanks again, BB52X
I've always thought your main indicator is rsi(14)
Do you need to see anything with rsi(14)?

[jademann]

TSF, To enter I wait for VIX to hit the green upper channel.

I also look at the CCI and RSI and compare with recent oversold events.
I also look at the PPO. At the moment Friday might be one day early on that.

When these all look good I enter UPRO.
When the VIX touches the blue 15 ema I sell, and maybe enter SPXU. It depends how aggressive you feel.
I also repeat this but with $SPX to see if this also agrees.

I have another set of conditions for long term holds during bulls.

What I dont know is how this method would have held up in the 2008 collapse, hopefully not got me in before the waterfall events.

I also only play with lunch money

[BullBear52x]

Thanks again, BB52X
I've always thought your main indicator is rsi(14)
Do you need to see anything with rsi(14)?

RSI is good for overbought and oversold I use them on all time frames, but for the above chart on Volume I can not use RSI to overlay the indicator so I use CCI in its place.

[tsf]

TSF, To enter I wait for VIX to hit the green upper channel.

I also look at the CCI and RSI and compare with recent oversold events.
I also look at the PPO. At the moment Friday might be one day early on that.

When these all look good I enter UPRO.
When the VIX touches the blue 15 ema I sell, and maybe enter SPXU. It depends how aggressive you feel.
I also repeat this but with $SPX to see if this also agrees.

I have another set of conditions for long term holds during bulls.

What I dont know is how this method would have held up in the 2008 collapse, hopefully not got me in before the waterfall events.

I also only play with lunch money

jademann, THANK YOU for the detailed explanation.
Wishing you a Happy Holidays Season and a Happy New Year

[tsf]

Thanks again, BB52X
I've always thought your main indicator is rsi(14)
Do you need to see anything with rsi(14)?

RSI is good for overbought and oversold I use them on all time frames, but for the above chart on Volume I can not use RSI to overlay the indicator so I use CCI in its place.

BB52X, THANK YOU for your many explanations.
Wishing you a Happy Holidays Season and a Happy New Year

[user13]

The Treasury said Mnuchin will convene a call on Monday with the president’s Working Group on Financial Markets, which includes Washington’s main stewards of the U.S. financial system and is sometimes referred to as the “Plunge Protection Team.”

The group, which was also convened in 2009 during the latter stage of the financial crisis, includes officials from the Federal Reserve as well as the Securities and Exchange Commission.

[daytradingES]

they still think they can talk to "the markets" - as if they soothing a child who is afraid of getting run over by elephants stampeding for a tiny exit.

Sure they can keep the gullible mom and pop in the boat as it moves to the waterfall, but the HFT algos are selling and the funds with a half a brain are getting while their is still a bid..regardless of NewPaper Protecion Team.

This bear hasn't even started to growl yet..

[BullBear52x]

.

BB52X, THANK YOU for your many explanations.
Wishing you a Happy Holidays Season and a Happy New Year

Thank you, and Right back at you, we will make a good money in 2019 there is no excuse on valuation any more for buyers now that everything is back into their means. for TA crews Sell the rip in all time frames to continue, by the time the new year comes bulls might be able to take back control on the one min. intraday LOL, so far the bears seams to get strong by the day.

Happy Holiday all. PEACE!