05/23/2019 Live Update

[Cobra]

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this bear shall have legs?

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/05 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/05 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

15min

[Mr. BachNut]

Another day, another gap...

The NYMO cycle remains down.
We had a corrective move back to the zero line late last week, but it did not follow through and has been consistently negative this week.
At Tuesday's close, it looked like it was setting up to up cycle, but it crumpled instead.

Price has been coiling around the middle keltner band for awhile now.
There is a gap target just a bit lower, which should close.
It is an open question whether the consolidation breaks down or reverses up in the days ahead.
A triangle pattern developing into next week could set things up, but I don't know what will happen.
Breakdown should bring on the 200 day MA and the lower keltner band.
Lower lows with a positive NYMO divergence could also be interesting.

I still have short runners in SPX and R2K both with BE stops.
Some long setups developed last week but never triggered.
Nothing on deck now. So, i am doing nothing.

[Trades with cats]

Sure looks like the down side is done for a while. When I see a big fast green bar coming off of the lows I start thinking buy program and time to slap on some measured move guesses.

[Trades with cats]

Pulling back at the ON low but just to VWAP expect they will restart the buy program.

[Al_Dente]

$NYDEC:$NYADV = 4x, down from about 6x at open (short covering)
$NYDNV:$NYUPV = 3.3x, holding strong from the open which was about 3.5x (Selling volume remains strong at the moment)

[Trades with cats]

Only half of text book. Yes it broke out of congestion and continued the same trend from before but it is supposed to do a two stwp where the initial break out fails then the real one moves price on up so I wait.

[Trades with cats]

Twitter feed saying Bond Market is headed for the bomb shelters with everything left of 30 years now at or below Fed Funds rate. Saw earlier that VIX was spiking.

[Trades with cats]

Was looking for a pause at VWAP and bingo here we are.

[K447]

Twitter feed saying Bond Market is headed for the bomb shelters with everything left of 30 years now at or below Fed Funds rate. ...

Left of?

[Al_Dente]

China owns US$1.1 trillion of U.S. Treasuries.
“China’s US Treasury holdings in March decreased by US$10.4 billion to US$1.1205 trillion, its lowest since May 2017.” But TLT is way up, yields down, so bond buyers have absorbed China’s selling so far….

“China is making a profit on its US$1.1 trillion treasury holdings. It bought them at an average of 3.3 per cent yield over the past decade compared to the current yield of 2.4 per cent on 10-year treasury bonds. That leaves room for it to sell US$700 billion of its US$1.1 trillion holding before pushing yields to its break even point of 3.3 per cent.”

This article from “The South China Morning Post” suggests they may use the treasuries as a “weapon of last resort” in the trade war.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... es-beijing

[Elsewhere: a social anecdote: it is now “embarrassing” to have an Apple iPhone in China]

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:00 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/05 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

Sorry, they used the term to the left of 30 year and it sounded clever. Every maturity less than (to the left of on the yield cure chart) the 30 year treasury.

Let me add a comment that yesterday we were given carefully thought out written comments from the Fed where there was wide spread agreement to concentrate their activities in the short duration area. I see this as them saying we will fight the inverted yield curve by using our money to try and supply liquidity at the short end. So was sort of expecting a bad reaction from bonds to that. But they can not declare a new major round of money printing yet so we do this dance. But it is a very dangerous dance because like Cinderella at the ball we have an election coming and at a certain point their policy is to freeze policy.

[Cobra]

too late to judge whether it's downtrend day or range day, but this bear shall have legs might work.

[Al_Dente]

$NYDEC:$NYADV = 4x, down from about 6x at open (short covering)
$NYDNV:$NYUPV = 3.3x, holding strong from the open which was about 3.5x (Selling volume remains strong at the moment)

$NYDEC:$NYADV = 4.1x
$NYDNV:$NYUPV = 3.5x

[Al_Dente]

Today, overly simplified:
Folks are either confused or afraid or both = sell stocks, buy bonds (aka: a flight out of risk and into "safety").

[Al_Dente]

VIX is up +20%

[K447]

Today, overly simplified:
Folks are either confused or afraid or both ...

Is there a tracking chart for uncertainty?