05/31/2019 Live Update

[te_fern]

I do not know when pension funds do their re-balancing calculation. I know they did not know about the tweet in advance. But IF they still have 12 billion to deploy there could be a bounce. I am guessing that the New York broker dealer banks will be "helping" them, as well as managing increased corporate buybacks.

TWC, when I worked for a pension plan we rebalanced the day after a trigger was hit between stocks and bonds. We didn't wait until the end of the month. I would think larger plans managing their own money rebalanced almost immediately, smaller plans using advisors may wait until the end of the month.
We received a report every morning showing where we were relative to rebalancing...

what was the trigger, boss?

If I remember correctly it was either 1% or 1.5% over the asset classes target. Asset classes were equities, fixed income, real estate, hedge funds, private equity, and cash. When I left FI was 20% of the fund.

[te_fern]

Equities tended to raise money pretty often when the market was rallying....

[te_fern]

I have this channel i'm watching....

[Trades with cats]

te-fern Thanks for your incite. Shoots a big hole through the pension re-balancing story. It is top of mind do to news recency bias. We were told that was the catalyst for the big move up after the Christmas low.

Still leaves the intermediate and longer term tin foil hat theories on the table. (IPO window closed and Trump trying to trigger the Fed put before the elections).

[Trades with cats]

Watching the same channel. Problem is the channel leads right to the large pools of sell orders from before the open so the 65 to 68 or so area is going to be choppy.

[Trades with cats]

Should add, in theory it could be choppy.

[Trades with cats]

My little 10 tick DOM showing a huge block of orders pasusing the market at ES 2768.

[te_fern]

Looks to be trying to break out of the channel to the upside. The blue lines are inflection zones from a poster on PL's site...

[Cobra]

clear breakout, maybe the low was in for today, although there might still be a higher low test.

[Trades with cats]

Largish order book at the ES 2770 level stopped the move. Euro area traders going to the pub to think about who will lead them politically.

Pretty sad that we only got a difficult 10 points up from the opening print with lots and lots of consolidation blocks along the way. Should mean that it won't fall fast. We will see.

[te_fern]

Still in the channel. It would be a tough job, but is it trying to close the gap??

[Al_Dente]

Options traders went bull-spy at the green arrow
Tick did not agree (red arrow)…. until now (cyan arrow); it’s trying to bull.
Bulls need more green ticks, else pullback…
5min

[Al_Dente]

Largish order book at the ES 2770 level stopped the move. Euro area traders going to the pub to think about who will lead them politically.
Pretty sad that we only got a difficult 10 points up from the opening print with lots and lots of consolidation blocks along the way. Should mean that it won't fall fast. We will see.

Any way to post a chart of those "order book" orders?
They seem to be precient, thanks boss

[JFR]

Overnight gap down. Riding the EMA20. IWM trying for liftoff.

[JFR]

Big picture. At an important support level. Tariff Man likes to wield the big stick.

[Al_Dente]

DIREXION REVERSE SPLITS are coming, after the close on June 27, 2019:
TZA
FAZ
JNUG
and more
http://www.direxioninvestments.com/wp-c ... t-ETFs.pdf

[JFR]

Moving back down beneath the EMA20. Meanwhile, I am stubbornly riding a short position on ES, not near to hitting target or stop.

Food and drink break ...

[Al_Dente]

Chamber of Commerce (they love trump) confirmed that business groups may sue the WH over the nasty Mexico tariffs.
“…discussions [with the WH] will continue through weekend, with groups hoping to have agreement on next steps by Monday.”
[source: Chamber, CNBC, zh]

[1der]

Thought came to mind last night - Why is he doing all this?

I think he really wants the Fed to lower interest rates. He feels the FED did it for Obama so they should/have to do it for him. He feels they owe it to him. He wants to "super charge" the economy as his legacy. And if he can get it all to happen next year, the better chance of him getting re-elected. By disrupting all he can right now and making decisions that are creating market weakness and possible slowdowns he can point to that and say lower the rates or else it is all going to crap.

An aside - 40 years ago I read a Nostradamus book that interpreted one of the quatrains as The Eagle and the Bear would join and wage war against the Tiger. At the time, Russia an the US were in the cold war and the US and China were getting their relationship started. I hope the interpretation was wrong.

[Al_Dente]

What is the Tick telling us now?
Red until it blows the other way
5m