06/01/2019 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 4 weeks in a row, the next week has 65% chances to close up.

[Al_Dente]

[Spoiler Alert: The key is 2750.52]
The MONTHLY chart is ugly.
UGLY.
Al Brooks, on 5/25, called it a “perfect double top” as it traded below the previous month’s low.
Also an “outside down month”.
“But, after 4 consecutive bull bars, this is a low probability short. Consequently, the reversal down will probably be minor. Traders will expect a 1 – 3 month pullback and then another test of the all-time high.”

Today (6/1) Brooks says: “…if June trades below the May low it will trigger the sell signal for the double top.” [As Friday’s low was 2750.52, and we closed at 2752.06, we could blink and trigger that sell; it’s not a stretch.]
Hello bulls: he estimates that in 60% of the instances, even if it breaks below the neck line of the double top, the break usually fails and the market continues its trading range.
So, that leaves us a 40% chance of a breakdown. For bears, he guesstimates a visit to the March low ~2726, or deeper…a 10% correction to ~2650 [rarely a straight line down; bounces can be violent].

[Al_Dente]

Historically, June is One of the Weakest Months of the Year for US Stocks since 1950
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D71mnyYXkAEiiJT.png

Money Market Funds have seen a significant inflow of nearly $95 billion. That's much larger than in previous years.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D70LNNlWsAE1ujb.png

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" Down trend market with a short term over sold. Your time frame is key to navigate this crazy market. I am expecting a dead cat bounce next week. many short terms indicators signaled a volatile and over sold, if you care for 5-10 handles/day like me, it's time to be nimble on any direction.I got two days to day trade next week. my note to self is ....stay focus, only price pays, for now bears are in full control but a dead cat bounce could be coming in, in a grand style.Trade well, Peace!

[jademann]

Anyone say retest weekly 200ma?

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SP ... 291221744c

[crawford glissadevil]

I've been 100% short SPX since May 7. At end of trading yesterday, I banked profit and cut position to 40% short SPX. 60% sidelines. I'm not ready to play a bounce... yet.

The Oct-Dec move down had significant higher volume than this down move. Not much fear...yet. That makes me believe, we'll move sideways till the 4th quarter. SPX holds 2700ish, follow by a lower high (beneath 2954) and then higher low, coiling on lower volume into 4th quarter of 2019.

My 2nd most likely scenario? Hold 2600 support, followed by rally to 3150ish and then a two year bear market.

[flrtrader]

I like The Don.... But if he will just keep his mouth shut for one week I can make alot of money on my Longs!! Right now INTC is giving a TTM Squeeze on the TOS charts. I got heavy long calls two weeks out at the close. (Cheap) closed at 44.05 ish and easily see 66.50 -68.00 by Friday! Also went in heavy short TLT at the close there. See an easy 3 point drop in the same time frame.

FWIW

[Al_Dente]

Chair Powell is on "60 Minutes" tonight