09/22/2011 Intraday Watering

[bushwaffle]

wow miss the big wave, and this is actually what i am waiting for
anyway, i feel better today. let's do some trading. 1125-1130 area was heavy battle field. i expect to be the support. if broken, we will see new yearly low very soon. (low possibility)
in case of reb, i think 1145 is a good bifurcation point.

bifurcation- added to vocabulary, thanks.

[Cobra]

Hi guys, I am new here, and post my first 2 cents here

According to statistics, any gap after a major distribution day will most likely be filled intraday, especially when yesterday is a almost 3% down day. (I forgot the result, but maybe 100% chance a gap after a 3% down day will be filled since many years ago? Cobra can you check it?)

A possible picture:
113-114 area is a support. If really rebound from here, a 40% retracement is expected. 122-113=9, so 116.6 could be the target.

Welcome aboard!

[Cobra]

Huge gap down, normally such a gap shouldn't be filled. It's no ordinary time, so let's wait and see. If you remember what I said in the last night report: the yellow area will be exceeded and in shorter time than that of the last time. Well, I think it's fulfilled today, so it proves again, the selling is getting stronger and stronger.

Global ES is a straight down, now testing the previous low which is the support now, I don't think the support will be broken on this attack, so probably a rebound of some kind at the open, but NORMALLY, such a strong push down rarely is one legged, so the rebound if any is sell.

Do you think it's a 3 leg down? I heard that but I don't know enough to confirm.

Thanks, love the board, it's been a huge help.

My guess is we're on the 3rd leg down to test Aug 9 lows.

[KENA]

If the mkt can keep away from the 1140 area there is not much support until we get dn to 1119 /1123 area.Lots of support here.Lets see

[jaijailyc]

Sold UPRO @ 46.65 for $1 profit/share. Still holding my short position.

[99er]

SPX
Neckline broken.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/spx_1963.html

Bear Flag too.

[silicon_beaver]

A p-bar at 116.6 SPY?

[pidge66]

way too stretched and it's consolidation area in the past, so strong support here, still expect rebound of some kind. The only thing is guaranteed to work on earth is the distance to moving average, because of gravity, anything cannot be too far above or down a moving average, simple as that.

The problem is either the price can go back up to the moving average, OR the moving can come down to the price while the price consolidate.

[alvian33]

hey agnosia, do you ever trade stocks? what do you think of goldman, I plan to start buying for my long portfolio, thinking may be I can start buying gs at 90-95 area, any thoughts?

[Michelle]

CF, CAT...so many stocks in freefall.

[jarbo456]

looks like we're targeting this morning's low.

exchanges are becoming overloaded i guess...TOS sending out initial problem messages.

[StrikePrice]

Moving through 276.4% Fib Extension. 1128 then 1125 are the next stops.

[Michelle]

A p-bar at 116.6 SPY?

I have a phantom print on AAPL to 169ish on Monday's chart. I'm curious to see if it gets there.

[soku]

long here. targeting 1136

[ultramarine]

SPX daily MACD showing the beginning of a crossover now. A close at or below these levels would be further evidence of another major leg lower as per Cobra's target of 1000.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... 7959704201

[fehro]

if we bounce? question is how high...

[99er]

Hey honey!
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/spx_1084.html

Surf's up.

[Mr. BachNut]

Short position built last week is still on. Now in the money.
My mechanical model did whipsaw back to a sell yesterday in classic bull trap fashion. Amazing how bullish things can look right before dive.
Did not quite get to full position as last tranche had a sell price of SPY 122.2. OK with that as being short in front of FOMC was very scary.
Resistance zone held amazing well. Stop loss point was not even flirted with. Confirms Bear Market rules remain in effect.
Should have finished the position on the break yesterday, but I am a tortoise not a snake and thus too slow.
Trend line of rising bottoms from August low has been violated. So, this is our test of the low and a double bottom can be looked for in coming days.
Will be looking for some kind of low and a positive divergence to form to get bullish.
That said, I don't plan to overstay my welcome on the short. If given a good price, will take profit arbitrarily without regard to technicals. May happen today.

[uempel]

Same old chart gives all the info:

[Al_Dente]

VIX 41 alert.
When you have a moment to breathe, glance at the long term VIX, back to ’08, just as a reminder that our lines are 30 and 50 for the VIX.
She stopped dead near 50 in the Q2 ’10 correction, and also last month, but in the ’09 rout she kept going …… quite a bit further...

This is just Al’s chart, but he stole it from GS (Jan Hatzius, et al.). They use 30 and 50 as their lines, so why not piggy back on them.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p ... =243531290