04/10/2020 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 1 week, the next week had 77% chances to make a higher high so bulls might be fine holding positions into the weekend.

[te_fern]

Pasta Boss, I just figured it out on the Perf Charts. Click on the 200 days and change it to what you want. Like 90 days.

[Al_Dente]

Pasta Boss, I just figured it out on the Perf Charts. Click on the 200 days and change it to what you want. Like 90 days.

thanks boss

ELSEWHERE:
“A day in the life of an Amazon courier on the frontlines of the U.S. pandemic”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... ss+News%29

[Moral of that story: Dude, you’re shopping at Whole Foods, don’t be a dick, overtip your delivery person.]

[Al_Dente]

Tom McClellan:
"Don’t Tug On Superman’s Cape"
"You can put aside your fancy chart patterns, and your in-depth fundamental analyses.
The Fed is now in charge of everything, and the Fed is buying."

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_c ... mans_cape/

[Al_Dente]

SECTOR ROTATION, ONE WEEK
https://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Fav ... ,IDAY#&O=2

[Al_Dente]

This old chart helped me, especially in July 2007 and into 2008, so I like it (red boxes).
This is WEEKLY and the vertical lines slip a bit, but I think you get the picture.
Since 2006, whenever WEEKLY NYMO got this high (lime boxes), SPX went up considerably thereafter.
(Exception: in early 2009, after the green signal, SPX make a lower low before the final bottom… from roughly 900 down to 666 SPX)

[Al_Dente]

Use taxpayer money to prop up "zombie companies" … or…. have the company declare bankruptcy...
“When a company fails, it does not fire its employees...it goes through a packaged bankruptcy...if anything, what happens is the employees end up owning more of the company. The people who get wiped out are the people who own the unsecured debt and the equity...but the employees don't get wiped out and the pensions don't get wiped out."
“… if a bunch of hedge funds get wiped out - what's the big deal? Let them fail. So they don't get the summer in the Hamptons - who cares."
"On main street today, people are getting wiped out, [but] rich CEOs are not, boards that had horrible governance are not, hedge funds are not...
[Early Facebook investor and BILLIONAIRE VC investor Chamath Palihapitiya.]

[cletus]

Beware of bullish stats people are quoting. We haven’t had an event like this in nearly 100 years so bringing up stats from the last 10 years is a joke.

Here’s a stat. We’re in a bear market by 2 measures: the TED spread and the VIX. Period. There’s no discussion. Until the TED falls beneath 0.5 or the vix 10 week average goes below 20, it’s a bear.

By the way, the TED is showing a massive liquidity crisis among banks despite the Fed’s rescue. Still bullish?

[Bman69]

Morning "Al_Dente" Thank you for all you and others contribute to this forum. I'm more in the free markets use of bankruptcy camp then what the Fed is doing. With comparisons to 2009 I don't see values like we did then, those were buys of a generation while this is buy of the year or decade and it has passed. We wont have PE growth for some time. We will have a change in consumer habits at least for myself. I have asthma and while the economy comes back to life (not normal) I still will be cautious to be in public, will keep to individual fly fishing and hiking. Additionally, the oil production agreement IMO is nothing close to what is needed to turn oil. Oil industry will still be in trouble, possibly the recipient of some of this $2T in hopes they can make payments long enough until oil gets back to $50. Oil production cuts of 10 mbpd for 2 months, then down to 8 then 6 thru mid 2021. Good trading.

[Al_Dente]

Investment management giant BlackRock, BLK, in a late Thursday SEC filing, said that CEO Larry Fink took a pay cut for the second-straight year in 2019. Fink's base salary for 2019 was $1.50 million, the same as 2018, but total compensation fell to $24.31 million from $26.54 million, which was down from $27.74 million in 2017.
While Fink's bonus remained at $7.75 million in 2019, which was down from $10.00 million in 2017, the "fair value" of hits stock awards fell to $14.75 million from $17.05 million in 2018 and $16.60 million in 2017. Meanwhile, the median annual total compensation of BlackRock employees, excluding Fink, fell to $133,644 from $136,313 in 2018, and the ratio of the CEO pay to median employees fell to 182 to 1 from 195 to 1

[Al_Dente]

UAL filed late Thursday with the SEC, detailing what its executives were paid in 2019.
CEO Oscar Munoz and President Scott Kirby have waived 100% of their base salaries from March 10 through at least June 30. In 2019, Munoz's base salary was $1.25 million, which represented 9.9% of his total compensation of $12.64 million, including $2.89 million in non-equity incentive plan compensation and $442,933 in other compensation. Kirby's 2019 base salary was $875,000, or 5.2% of total compensation of $16.78 million, which included $1.38 million in non-equity incentive plan compensation and $232,484 in other compensation. The SEC statement also said that the estimated median compensation of all employees in 2019, excluding the CEO, was $74,750 making the ratio of the CEO's pay to all employees
169 to 1.

[Heck]

Deflation Starting to Take Hold in U.S.
Consumer prices fell 0.4% last month, biggest decline in more than five years

Weekend reading
The Road Less Traveled

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433632 ... his-crisis

Peaceful Passover, Good Friday and Happy Easter CMV

[Heck]

Beware of bullish stats people are quoting. We haven’t had an event like this in nearly 100 years so bringing up stats from the last 10 years is a joke.

Jim Reid DB
US economy crashing down at - 30% annual rate in current quarter
SPY - 17.7 % from high at 50 % retracement level
Bottom Isn’t Here Yet for Stocks. A Look at the Last 800 Years of Economic Data Shows Why
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-bo ... 1585926181

JPMorgan now forecasts economy contracting by - 40%, unemployment to reach 20% in April

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449444

[BullTart]

Deflation Starting to Take Hold in U.S.
Consumer prices fell 0.4% last month, biggest decline in more than five years

Really quite the spectacle we have in front of us... the BLACK HOLE of deflationary forces vs. the THERMONUCLEAR BOMBS of the "whatever it takes" Fed (brrrrr)....

Infinity vs Infinity.

However, as we know mathematically, some infinite sets can be much larger than other infinite sets.

So, will the BLACK HOLE swallow up the NUKES? or will the NUKES snuff out the BLACK HOLE?

When I look around the universe, black holes are the big winners. That's why they are at the centers of galaxies, not stars.

[Heck]

Bearish Setup
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449494
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449445
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /585389789
This Bear may have legs
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449480

[Heck]

Good Corona Good Friday

https://www.c-span.org/video/?471115-1/ ... level&live

Corona Deaths and Hospital Use Peaked

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Sell the News ?

BEARYA

[merryme]

The banks who are playing the market maker role funded by the FED are the largest holders of the SPY ETF. From what I can understand, the banks in the their role as market makers for the FED aren't given specific stocks and/or ETFs to prop up, it's at their discretion? (Pls correct me if I am wrong.)

Most recent data that I can find is that JPM is the top holder of SPY....followed by all the other big banks.

https://old.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/insti ... l-holdings

[JFR]

Morning "Al_Dente" Thank you for all you and others contribute to this forum. I'm more in the free markets use of bankruptcy camp then what the Fed is doing. With comparisons to 2009 I don't see values like we did then, those were buys of a generation while this is buy of the year or decade and it has passed. We wont have PE growth for some time. We will have a change in consumer habits at least for myself. I have asthma and while the economy comes back to life (not normal) I still will be cautious to be in public, will keep to individual fly fishing and hiking. Additionally, the oil production agreement IMO is nothing close to what is needed to turn oil. Oil industry will still be in trouble, possibly the recipient of some of this $2T in hopes they can make payments long enough until oil gets back to $50. Oil production cuts of 10 mbpd for 2 months, then down to 8 then 6 thru mid 2021. Good trading.

Thanks for sharing. Good trading. Good fishing. Good hiking.

Back to normal in a year? Don't know about that. I have no symptoms. But one wonders if one could be immune or a carrier. Waiting for the immunity tests.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/0 ... n-germany/

[Al_Dente]

Easy to see here to see the effect of the FED buying …. note the only two with big gaps above their red 50ma. (Daily charts)
Zh: “...with the Fed not yet buying stocks, what is the next best thing to buy in frontrunning the Fed that carries the highest possible return, and the answer of course is junk bond ETFs.”
[Pasta here: Is it safe to say the FED just put a floor (a “FED Put” if you will) under HYG and/or LQD? I don’t know.]

HYG, LONG JUNK, has the largest AUM, and it had 88.4 million shares traded on Thursday, so it’s approprite for day trading
LQD had 53.6 million shares traded on Thursday, so ditto
SJB, SHORT JUNK, traded 4.0 million shares Thursday
This is HYG, 5min

Thanks to merryme for this, changed to HYG “data as of Apr. 9, 2020 “
https://old.nasdaq.com/symbol/hyg/insti ... l-holdings

[Al_Dente]

Morning "Al_Dente" Thank you for all you and others contribute to this forum. ...