04/12/2021 Live Update

[K447]

RAMP EXPRESS !

I will note that the twitter guy you recommended(@jam_croissant) listed 4109 as a *** 3 star support level. It hit 4109.25 and took off from there. I didn't see 4109 as resistance....

any idea where he got that number from?
I don't see it on any timeframe.

Cem uses a much different lens to view /ES and related.

... There doesn’t exist much in textbooks, because this is not common knowledge...

I am the authority. Everything I teach here I taught myself & are my own theories. None of it was learned in a textbook, nor taught to me.

I learned all of this from 40k hrs in the belly of the beast.

Excellent fellow to follow. Really changes how you see the market and the charts. The charts are the ongoing results of what is going on internally.

Look for his very early am (lake, late night) Twitter threads - excellent material, albeit they can require several reads to wrap ones head around the meanings and implications.

[K447]

April 12 early Twitter post
Cem Karsan: Here we are @ 4/12.

The rally to ATH has transpired as predicted & the VIX has tumbled to 13 month lows. The window of weakness has opened & this is where things start to get weird...it’s NEVER straightforward, & imagining how this market will manage to tumble through the window begins to become fairly hard to pinpoint.

The truth is, that despite Vanna’s part time sched this week & charm’s fading strength as the week goes on, Gary’s still very much in control until the banana’s get taken away. Any rally to our 4140 *** objective should begin the process of loosening his grip...& any rally above 4140 toward a 420 spy before 4/20 should only serve to create greater potential energy for a correction in the month to come.

Skew in the indices has been shockingly soft given how low IVol has become, NTM particularly in the front of the curve, as term structure has also steepened so dramatically, that it has left the potential for a wild rumpus to begin w/OTM puts in the front priced at absurdly low Ivols....

A sizable buyer of margin puts at this juncture could be all it takes to set off a repricing that could ripple quickly through the Vol complex starting in the 2.5 weeks to come. This window happens to line up w/a 5 week OpEx cycle, which makes it all the more vulnerable, especially given what seems to be a dangerous liquidity period in what is the Treasury’s greatest monthly issuance ever($370 mil)..amidst no further SLR support & it’s clearly not a coincidence that our head zookeeper Powell took 60 min out of his Sun to make sure Gary was well FED come Mon morning.

Add to this a critical CPI number Tues morn & likely on fire bank earnings coming Wed, driven by a on fire housing market, historic ISM strength above 64, & a steepening yield curve, & it all adds up to the potential for a disturbance in the force... multiple contraction via rates is on le menu. It’s not a Q of if, but when @ this point...& ultimately the stars seem to be aligning for sooner rather than later, as retail call demand also seems to be softening amidst an economic reopening, tax sails begin to enter LT realized gain status & investors begin the process of making estimated calculations & payments for taxes in the month to come...

Watch Rates like a hawk. Watch Fixed strike Ivol on the rally. Watch IWM & NDX for underperformance. That’s is where we’ll be proactively adding convex hedges opportunistically to our Tesla & Arkk bets to take advantage of liquidity on the tail when the opportunity arises.

All of this said, as mentioned on Fri, remember it’s never an easy ride. we’re likely to get some more mowing of the tulip’s & signs of accelerated forced call squeezes across the space before it’s all said & done. The RSI’s are blinking red. So gamma is the name of the game. With an eye to scalping to longer gamma & shorter deltas at each of our levels. If a decline finally comes mid/late next week, be careful buying the initial dip, as seasonality continues to weaken as we approach May & demand flows are waning w/ low short interest @ record low levels, & decreased retail BTD’ers around to cushion the blow. Pair this all w/the potential energy of compressed IVOl & skew, & the tail’s potentially fatter than its been in a while w/an increasingly neg dist as well.

If we can make it to 4/26 w/out a close below the 20 day, we’ll know that the strength of the rally will continue until mid May.

Good luck!!

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:43 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2021/04 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2021/04 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Tuesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

[Trades w 2 Cats]

He updates levels regularly, so I am no help. His multipart messages give overall direction and timing based on index options positioning and expirations. So not so much for daytrading.

[trader0303]

April 12 early Twitter post
Cem Karsan: Here we are @ 4/12.

The rally to ATH...

Good luck!!

Thank you for the info!