06/17/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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The rebound overnight for now can be seen as a bear flag but if up more then I don't know what pattern it is (The low was in? Don't know, I guess no though). Maybe a falling wedge is in the making?

[jaguar6992]

I believe SPY goes ex today.

[cletus]

Cletus Open Notes:

1) The open does not inspire too much confidence a big up day is possible. The gaps up will fill, almost certainly.
2) Bulls need NYMO to tick up TODAY. If it doesn't the positive divergence isn't probably going to happen.
3) Sentiment is very pessimistic and also supports a bottom area here.
4) Were markets to pivot around this area, this is one scenario I've had my eye on is a head and shoulders bottom. Surprisingly, this would take markets up to test the all-time highs and likely within a few months. This of course is wildly bullish and maybe not so likely, but I still would suggest a move to fill the double gap at 397 is a reasonable target for any bounce. If the market DOES reach the 410s on the leg up, that strongly supports this scenario.
5) I still believe, no matter what path the market takes, the down January this year predicts a down year, so bulls shouldn't expect any new all-time highs to hold for long.

[Daniel]

I believe SPY goes ex today.

Yes.

[Daniel]

The SNB 50 basis point hike was a big shocker. That's what drove the bond and equity futures into abject panic overnite yesterday. The Swiss National Bank NEVER panics. The expectation was for no hike, rates unchanged. Yet they gurgitated up a 50 bipper. This signalled in 16pt font: Now IS the time to panic.

But the BOJ did not act, despite the yen weakness getting extreme. King Dollar is again strong today, keeping its rate-spread advantage, and snuffing out some of yesterday's enthusiasm for gold and miners.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:10 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/06 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:25 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/06 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Testing day low, breakdown might not for real because bears have travelled so far to break something, so better a consolidation or rebound first before trying the breakdown.

[cletus]

The relative outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 is notable of late, as it is outperforming today. I believe that signals the peak in hawkishness of the fed and likely the end of the bond route for now. Bonds are also showing some strength lately.

[arzaccess]

The relative outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 is notable of late, as it is outperforming today. I believe that signals the peak in hawkishness of the fed and likely the end of the bond route for now. Bonds are also showing some strength lately.

Noticed that NYFANG and ARKK did not make new lows.

[Cobra]

Classic breakdown then sharp reverses up. Now what? Was the low in? I don't know. It was a nice looking double bottom though (yesterday's low and today's low).

[Al_Dente]

SPX intraday
sorted red

[Al_Dente]

XLE oil stocks, with SPX faint overlay
5min
ignore vertical lines
[btw: subscribers recall when Cobra warned us, yes he did]

[Al_Dente]

SEASONALITY shows a low in late june, then up in july
https://charts.equityclock.com/sp-500-i ... onal-chart

[merryme]

P&F Chart (on left) shows the huge volume that made the up move possible. Compare Pre-Jan 2022 (up move volume) to Post-Jan2022 (down move volume) and you don't see the capitulation volume that is needed to finish off this down move.

Right side chart shows the Andrews pitchfork with the fib time zones. If you understand Don Worden's BOP you know that Smart Money started selling in Dec. You can see weak buy the dip but mostly there hasn't been anything but selling since.

[Al_Dente]

FEAR AND GREED
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

[Al_Dente]

MARK HULBERT:
This is LONG TERM, buy and hold, but still shocking
"I analyzed how you would have done if, in every bear market since World War II, you bought stocks on the day the S&P 500 closed below the 20% loss threshold. ..... on average you would have done very well.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/those ... 1655224023

[Al_Dente]

ALMANAC pegs the DJIA bottom around October 31, 2022, at 26732.13.
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/6872 ... tober-2022

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:12 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/06 ... ay-update/

[Daniel]

Noticed that NYFANG and ARKK did not make new lows.

ARKK has shown intriguing relative strength for several weeks now. I'm keeping it on my watchlist.