06/27/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list HERE. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.

• Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.

• Personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.

• Please no direct link to your personal web site or blog. You must post rich contents here. You can, however, put link to your personal web site or blog as your signature.

• I'm very busy during the trading hour, so your question posted on board might not be answered. For a guaranteed answer to your question please send email to cobra@cobrasmarketview.com.

=============================================================================================================================================================================

3 push up so probably one more push (always gives bulls more credit) then pullback?

[cletus]

Cletus open notes:

1) Bullish cycles conclude roughly mid-week, but since there is the upcoming holiday and bullish seasonality, I would say at minimum next week is probably the first opportunity for a short (and we'll see what actually happens)
2) The SPX remains on the exact path as outlined for the larger H&S bottom. A rally up to around 4,000 or 400 on SPY would be required to complete the next step
3) Sentiment supports further upside. People are still too bearish.
4) The double gap on SPY as shown here is still unfilled, so I wouldn't bother on a short position at all until this happens. It's just 60 or 70 pts higher from here
5) Bias is up - dip buying remains appropriate until the SPY double gap fills at least
6) A couple problems emerging for bulls. Rates are rising as well as crypto falling. Not a single accumulation day (up volume 10x higher than down volume) on this rally so far means the bulls really haven't established a new bull leg with any certainty. I personally think if we do a H&S the accumulation days won't happen until the right shoulder is in

[BullBear52x]

Watch fear, resistance at mid BB now it's time to pay attention to VIX and VVIX.

[BullBear52x]

Option side of thing, see $SKEW, too low, the sell off could be very bad and fast, no one care to hedge.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/06 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

Intraday SPX

[JFR]

ES daily. Day 6 on the move up, out of the base. Above the EMA 20.

[JFR]

SPY 5 minutes. Price action. Some good moves. Some chop.

Back later ...

[Cobra]

Lower high?

[BullBear52x]

Twice shy, Auction house theory, if no interest on the top they will look for the buyer at the bottom.

[cletus]

Dip buying was correct

~Uncle Cletus

[bb8bb9]

Cletus open notes:

1) Bullish cycles conclude roughly mid-week, but since there is the upcoming holiday and bullish seasonality, I would say at minimum next week is probably the first opportunity for a short (and we'll see what actually happens)
2) The SPX remains on the exact path as outlined for the larger H&S bottom. A rally up to around 4,000 or 400 on SPY would be required to complete the next step
3) Sentiment supports further upside. People are still too bearish.
4) The double gap on SPY as shown here is still unfilled, so I wouldn't bother on a short position at all until this happens. It's just 60 or 70 pts higher from here
5) Bias is up - dip buying remains appropriate until the SPY double gap fills at least
6) A couple problems emerging for bulls. Rates are rising as well as crypto falling. Not a single accumulation day (up volume 10x higher than down volume) on this rally so far means the bulls really haven't established a new bull leg with any certainty. I personally think if we do a H&S the accumulation days won't happen until the right shoulder is in

Lots of excellent points, thanks Cletus! Long NQ around 12050 this morning, also sold several bear put ratio (expiring today) further down below. NQ should be testing 12400-12500 this week if not higher. bb

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:12 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/06 ... ay-update/

[JFR]

Dow 30. About even between the greens and the reds. UNH and MRK with the leaders. Frequent flyer, leading and lagging, BA, trailing today.

[JFR]

Alternatives. IYR and USO up. TLT and UUP down.

[BullBear52x]

It's normal for me to be bearish, but if Cobra boss leaning bearish you got to be more careful on the buy side.

[JFR]

SPY 5 minutes. Price action.

[BullBear52x]

Intraday buy the dip, bulls can not fail here.

[Daniel]

Watch fear, resistance at mid BB now it's time to pay attention to VIX and VVIX.

The VIX is currently holding just below a confluence of its 50day sma and its 20day sma. At the same time, QQQ, SPY, and IWM are performing their respective native dances around their (strongly downslope) 20day sma. None are clearly above, and none have been clearly rejected. But if they do convert the 20day, and march on twd the 50day, we could see a VIX crush down into the 22,23 zone, where it bottomed on the last rally. It could happen fast. Or, it could just be a standard drift by VIX down to the mid-bollyband. Still, these are significant alignments, and the market is volatile.

[Al_Dente]

"Someone with a lot of money to spend has taken a bearish stance on NVIDIA
https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearc ... LNGTH&sb=1