The NYMO cycle remains DOWN.
At 27 days, this is a very long cycle.
We have returned to the Oversold Zone for a second time and have made lower NYMO lows eliminating what had been a positive divergence.
To have two Oversold Zone hits in such a short time indicates serious dumpage going on. Multiple hits are fairly rare. The 2020 plunge had a remarkable four Oversold Zone hits before finding a low though.
Oversold Zone hits can set the price low, but lower lows with a positive divergence are just as likely. So, time to look for a low, but be cautious.
We have a price bar below the lower Keltner Band this morning. The band hit says bears have confirmed we remain in a bear market.
If today's high remains below the band at the close though, there will be edge for a trip to the middle keltner in the weeks ahead.
There remains one big gap below at SPX 3674.84, which is getting close enough to gain magnetic attraction.
There are many gaps above but most are a long ways away. The gaps above the upper keltner and the 200 MA are looking to me like they could be there a long time...
Below the June low lie plenty of gaps from 2020 that could become technically interesting.
All that said, things can go crashy from oversold conditions. VIX has been rising at a moderate pace and not looking panicky.
So, perhaps a nasty catalyst or a capitulation of some sort is lurking in the jungle, but I don't know what will happen.
I remain flat. I missed the entry for this swing while vacationing in August, and I have a thing against chasing moves. A bummer...