09/28/2024 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 3 weeks in a row, the next week has 55% chances to close up, 81% chances to make a higher high.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

7th day since the breakout of September 19.

Trying to move up further, against resistance.

Indicators good, except volume low.

Needs another breakout for swing trading on the stock market indexes.

[tsf]

Thank you, Cobra and the Board.

Here are a couple of marketwatch articles that some of you might find of use:

Opinion: Warren Buffett is a fan of energy stocks. Here’s one more strong buy signal.
Energy company insiders are purchasing far more shares than they’re selling.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warre ... topstories

Opinion: Yes, you need to brace your portfolio for a possible Trump win
It’s likelier than you think. And J.D. Vance says it could be followed by a crisis.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/yes-y ... topstories

GLTA

[te_fern]

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Energy-
Shut ins and postponing completing wells has finally slowed the over abundance of natural gas. Weekly production is back inside the 5 year average level, All that government free money has built a lot of wind generation which means that when the wind blows in the mid-west Natty demand for electrical generation is softer. New large export facilities are starting to come on line. SO a new source of demand. Could be time to start nibbling.

Oil is acting like the economists are correct and the recession started 2qtr of 24. Volatility is big because hedge funds have put on large short positions.

Tankers are in a seasonally good period. Because the US Navy can not keep the Red Sea open voyages are lasting longer. Also not going through canals and locks favors VLCC fleet owners not Suez Max owners. Since these are an asset play with large dividends lowering interest rates and continuing inflation are both big plusses. The down side is what happens every time things get good, owners order too many new ships. If steel keeps dropping and the Chinese and Korean ship yards get hungry we could see the new build order book get dangerous, so not at all a desk drawer investment. Still, a good cash return on hard assets tied to a fundamental commodity. Bonus as green vote gathering by politicians continues it just throws more cargoes on the ocean to meet demand.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Interesting fun fact from someone who is paid to write. Fed rate cuts in the past: if we move into recession 1 year later S&P down 15%. If there is no recession S&P up 15%.

[BullBear52x]

From It is what it is department" PIVOTAL POINT.....Charting 101. Look for a turn? TA can help, will the turn sustain? only god knows.
Slow STO will tell us just that. ie: Friday closed we have another turning sign. I use 20/80 as a turn level.

Next....short term chart pattern 101, LL-HL-HH-LH. no new LL that I can see, I use an hourly for this, it's kind of like a very balance speed for most position traders. and with the help of EID bars, we can see the last RED hourly bar, that is a warning sigh to longs holding.
Projection: There will be a weaker trade to follow
Strategy short term day trading: (The IF) IF a lower trade than las hourly bar, it's a sell with a stop on top of the last bar, if a sell making LL refering to las HL on the chart, it's a home run for counter trend trading.
IF trade higher than the las hourly bar, it's a buy, with a stop below the last bar intraday trade. the new high to follow kills all the short term TA bearish view.

Intraday: Friday was an inside day, indecision, any thing goes. I use Fibonacci level to tell how bullish or bearish inside the range. Bullish or Bearish Harami? my read is Bullish Harami if price trade > 6.8% and Bearish Harami if <38.2%. now you know what I have inside of my little piggy brain, keep it simple and trade well. Peace!

[jademann]

Closer to top than the bottom.
The high looks similar to the one end of 2022.
https://schrts.co/HPrYRXEQ

A similar sized bullish pullback would bottom at 435.