05/24/2025 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 1 week, the next week has 59% chances to close up.

[tsf]

Thank you, Cobra and the board.

FWIW Saw a few comments around the blog-o-sphere along these lines:
Bluffing is the norm, so investors called the bluff, bought and partially faded the gaps.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

Pullback to the EMA 20.

MACD and its Histogram are on the downslope.

The trendline is still up.

IMO Eyes are still on the top. Those dayum bulls.

[JFR]

Dow 30.

Bad week.

AAPL leading the way into the depths.

The only 4 in the green are in Health Care and Staples.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

The week. All those retail dip buyers are hoping for the turn around next week.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

A different view of the week. Minuette waves saying dip buyers will get their wish next week. Problem is the next two higher degree waves are in the reasonable level for a wave three to be followed by an ugly wave 4 down. This could test the recent high and then head south for the summer, or not!

[tsf]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... s-analysis

Think of it as a four-act play.

It opens with a threat. This typically takes place at an unusual hour, on Truth Social, the president’s fringe social network, and prompts immediate warnings from countries and companies affected.

Then comes the imposition. Trump ignores the warnings, enforces the tariffs, claims they will raise billions, and sends out his closest allies and officials to defiantly explain why this is a strategic masterstroke, despite widespread concern.

Then the panic. Stock markets wobble. Businesses balk. Consumers grow anxious. The administration starts to waver, trailing exemptions and hinting at light at the end of the tunnel, even as Trump plays down the impact of his actions.

And then, the backtrack. This is also often revealed on Truth Social, before Trump again sends out his closest allies and officials to defiantly explain why this, too, is a strategic masterstroke.

This final stage is almost always presented as a bold negotiating breakthrough – like a “total reset” with China, or a supposed influx of countries seeking trade deals with the US – regardless of the facts.

Every performance is unique, of course. The cast rotates. You’re never quite sure how long each act will last. But so far, time and again, the script has followed the same arc.

The EU will draw up plans to retaliate. Trump will be urged to reconsider. At first, he will publicly dismiss such calls. And then …

How many times can you sit through the same show? On Wall Street, some investors appear to be wondering just how seriously they should be taking Trump on tariffs.

[te_fern]

Over the long weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

[grandeG]

Over the long weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

Thanks for the reminder Fern! I always seem to forget to put in my vote … Cobra is numero uno!!

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Dinner time here in the Southern California desert so doubting anyone sees this. If you do it shows how thin the trading was after the TACO announcement Friday evening on European tariffs. So Tuesday will be the actual test.