03/21/2011 Intraday Watering

99er · Post by **99er** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 11:40 am

Crude
Still bearish on crude oil too.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/crude_21.html

Fritz Baxter · Post by **Fritz Baxter** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 11:40 am

Rotation out of financials (guess sell the dividend news),
Copper nose diving,
Thinking that this rally might just fail today.

Post by **Cobra** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 11:41 am

nikman wrote:
Cobra wrote:I shouldn't say this during a strong up day as normally I won't think of shorting on such a day but this really gets ridiculous, for A/D ratio > 6, we have any U/D ratio 1.98? No wonder TRIN is larger than 3 now.
Hi Cobra,

Also on your 5-min SPY chart the green and pink lines are moving opposite of the market direction. I still don't know what each of these lines mean, but from your previous observations they seem to be in exactly the opposite of what they should be for such a strong up market.

They disagree a little with the trend but not strong enough, so let's see. green = FXA:FXY (may change to other currency pair later), pink = TLT.

agnosia · Post by **agnosia** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 11:47 am

99er wrote:Crude
Still bearish on crude oil too.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/crude_21.html

yeah i dumped my crude longs this morning after the 102.98 gap fill i was waiting for. Still a gap up at 104.38 but action looks pretty bearish. not gonna short this beast though..

nikman · Post by **nikman** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 11:49 am

Thanks!

Cobra wrote:
nikman wrote:
Cobra wrote:I shouldn't say this during a strong up day as normally I won't think of shorting on such a day but this really gets ridiculous, for A/D ratio > 6, we have any U/D ratio 1.98? No wonder TRIN is larger than 3 now.
Hi Cobra,

Also on your 5-min SPY chart the green and pink lines are moving opposite of the market direction. I still don't know what each of these lines mean, but from your previous observations they seem to be in exactly the opposite of what they should be for such a strong up market.
They disagree a little with the trend but not strong enough, so let's see. green = FXA:FXY (may change to other currency pair later), pink = TLT.

99er · Post by **99er** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 11:50 am

EURUSD
Looks like a Broadening Top.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/eurusd_21.html
Bearish for equities.

abracadabra · Post by **abracadabra** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 11:54 am

Cobra wrote:I shouldn't say this during a strong up day as normally I won't think of shorting on such a day but this really gets ridiculous, for A/D ratio > 6, we have any U/D ratio 1.98? No wonder TRIN is larger than 3 now.

agree!

99er · Post by **99er** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 11:56 am

Nikkei Futures
Disaster? What disaster?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/nikkei_21.html

Post by **Cobra** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 11:58 am

OK, again and again, I hate to say this, but still this doesn't look like a strong day, just comparing with how in the past huge gap up the first 2 bars went, besides, the momentum is now at its peak and pay attention to the EMA ENV, we haven't been up this much since the Nov bottom. Well, maybe the day simply starts slow, will catch up later?

uempel · Post by **uempel** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:05 pm

Importance of DMA 55:

Me XMan · Post by **Me XMan** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:10 pm

It's looking like morning star?

Cobra wrote:OK, again and again, I hate to say this, but still this doesn't look like a strong day, just comparing with how in the past huge gap up the first 2 bars went, besides, the momentum is now at its peak and pay attention to the EMA ENV, we haven't been up this much since the Nov bottom. Well, maybe the day simply starts slow, will catch up later?

99er · Post by **99er** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:19 pm

30Y
Long Bond up, equities down.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/30y_21.html

Post by **Cobra** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:22 pm

Me XMan wrote:It's looking like morning star?

Cobra wrote:OK, again and again, I hate to say this, but still this doesn't look like a strong day, just comparing with how in the past huge gap up the first 2 bars went, besides, the momentum is now at its peak and pay attention to the EMA ENV, we haven't been up this much since the Nov bottom. Well, maybe the day simply starts slow, will catch up later?

No, it's not morning star. A morning star should be gap up above the previous bar. Two Doji here only means indecision, so it may continue up, too early to say bear.

uempel · Post by **uempel** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:32 pm

On the very long term chart 1280 looks quite safe...

cletus · Post by **cletus** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:35 pm

Buying some shorts here. Either we head up to 1330 or down to 1250, but either way, the correction is not deep enough, so either way, shorts still look better to me than longs, and this is a reasonable entry.

zombiebraingoo · Post by **zombiebraingoo** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:37 pm

spy looks to fail here or test 132

I agree that this doesn't look like a really strong day so far.

USD is definitely going to collaspe over the next couple of months and I think equities will no longer benefit from weak USD - Gold will - I think I will reallocate to concentrate on PM's. HUI is at secondary reistance now - I think it will fall and retest fri high and then explode - today or tomorrow will be the day to buy in again if you don't have weight here.

SPX 55 and 14 ma are key and then the 20...

zombiebraingoo · Post by **zombiebraingoo** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:38 pm

cletus wrote:Buying some shorts here. Either we head up to 1330 or down to 1250, but either way, the correction is not deep enough, so either way, shorts still look better to me than longs, and this is a reasonable entry.

you are right on - be nimble!

I think playing the PM's will avoid all the guess work of equities in the next couple of months...

KENA · Post by **KENA** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:42 pm

The Tick is dropping so things could be getting bearish.

KENA · Post by **KENA** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:47 pm

The tick is now below -620..Getting very bearish

agnosia · Post by **agnosia** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:54 pm

KENA wrote:The tick is now below -620..Getting very bearish

yep. it's also making lower highs and lower lows... definitely trending down.

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03/21/2011 Intraday Watering

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