This is my view,
US market since the low of 2003 is not stock market ( forget about earnings, Economy, Export, GDP, etc... ) it is forex related market, If you agree with that view, then there is NO LONG TERM TREND IN FOREX .it is a huge trading range.
Now, if you also agree with that, then you have to expect what the price do usually in trading range. Let me give an example ( there are many notes but I will mention some ):
- Price love to hit stops at extreams.
- price move fast with a pattern of 3 major legs ( at least one of them large and strong ).
- the 3 legs mostly ( not always ) have a correction of flat and very boring in time and action.
- most signals in the long side are correct specially when price below the mid point of the range.
- the traditional TA signals will have an average on 70% to be correct which is low.
- The important area that price spent alote of time before will have 50 - 50 chance to win ( not good rate )
- when in flat action, price spend at least 2/3 of the time that been spent in the strong move for the same leg.
- A very reliable and strong signal will appears near the bottom of the range ( sell signal ) and the top of the range ( buy signals ) but they are false. If you want to studay Bulls/Bears trap, then check any bottom ot top in any trading range because they always perfect for study.
- be very carful when flat pattern appears because it is the place where dealers make there monye best, so don't take direction until it is clear. ( note: dealers make most of the minye in flat actions and when vix below 18 )
bottom line, I think US market will stay in this range for years and TA and ECO. analysis will be lost time by time... and if you know how to trade it and have a strategy ( I have mine
) then you will be soon in your Yacht