10/13/2012 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

First of all, don't forget our poll for this weekend: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=701

Begin with institutional accumulation and distribution as well as liquidity charts from stocktiming. Nothing unusual, distribution is larger than the accumulation now.

[Cobra]

Smart money still huge short. Begin covering though.

[Cobra]

II and AAII

[Cobra]

The final conclusion of the last week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=694&p=99959#p99959

[alphaRR]

Hi Cobra, In yr latest AAPL update you expect bias a little bit to the downside BUT the blue lines suggest a further drop to the 595-600 area. Can u please tell us how strongly you feel about this lower potential target or do you see selling exhaustion at current levels? Thanks you for your time, especially on weekends!

[Cobra]

Hi Cobra, In yr latest AAPL update you expect bias a little bit to the downside BUT the blue lines suggest a further drop to the 595-600 area. Can u please tell us how strongly you feel about this lower potential target or do you see selling exhaustion at current levels? Thanks you for your time, especially on weekends!

Sorry, that blue line was drawn on 10/09, implying rebound then fail, it's fulfilled, so I just removed it. Now I need see how low this coming down leg goes first.

[Harapa]

Panel in the middle is SPY:XLU ratio. Notice that performance of SPY correlates with the direction of trend line breaks. This ratio fell under two rising trend lines recently. Since than SPY is below the trigger price. Going back to 1998, SPY didn't post any significant gains after such a break, in fact most often it produced significant losses. Alternate views/interpretations will be welcomed.

[KENA]

Here is a link to an article that everyone should read.There are 4 charts and each one is explained very well..Both bulls and bears should should read..If things turn out like the writer explaines it will be bearish for the mkt..Not a long article and easy to read.Go to www.seekingalpha.com/article/921951

[Al_Dente]

Unlike the 50ma, it takes a lot of strength/weakness to jump the shark on the 200ma. In fact it happens just a couple times a year.
See what happened over the past few years when the percent-of-stocks-above-their-200ma fell below the blue 12ema (red circles).
THIS IS WEEKLY so it needs room to breathe, and it will bounce like a honey badger if we re-test the highs, but the last time we saw these
intermediate-term sell-signals fire in unison was in April.

[Al_Dente]

I’m posting this update prematurely. It’s for intermediate-term “Trend Follower”portfolios.
Based on the old Gerald Appel strategy: Exit when both the 5 and 10ema cross below the 20ema, BUT THE TRANS MUST CONFIRM,
and they are not confirming yet.
Last time I posted this was in June when it confirmed a buy (green boxes).
So who cares about longer-term trend followers? We all do, because if/when this confirms a sell signal, the LTs may start crowding the exits…

[TraderJoe]

Here is a link to an article that everyone should read.There are 4 charts and each one is explained very well..Both bulls and bears should should read..If things turn out like the writer explaines it will be bearish for the mkt..Not a long article and easy to read.Go to http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/921951

Kena, GREAT Article
Thanks,
Joe

[KeiZai]

Working on some charts until then here is something to look at

Big picture : dollar

So far the structure in dollar looks very corrective but it can change in a blink of an eye

GBP/USD

EUR/JPY best pair to forecast what will other pairs do
Very big picture (massive wedge)

XIV : hanging on the line, someone might say it looks like H&S

Big week ahead guys

[daytradingES]

Paging AL,
As requested!

Update on last weekend's gold post

Last weekend I highlighted a possible topping formation in Gold.
Here is a review of that:
Review
http://screencast.com/t/8LiQf7SR

We have closed below the sell trigger level on a Friday close. Here is this weeks update!
update for Saturday 13 Oct 2012
http://screencast.com/t/ytLLifIa

NTA
GLTA

[KeiZai]

We have closed below the sell trigger level on a Friday close

Yes definitely here is my take

[BullBear52x]

KeiZai is right, next week is da week to be exciting about either support here or confirmation of what to come. for a long time we finally have a solid trend for short term we should enjoy it for what it is because this easy trade set up will end soon and whipsaw at its best will resume.
since everyone is kind of bearish lets look at the bright side of thing, $BPSPX is not breaking down as bad, so bears need to see this break down to seal the deal. above 70 is still over bought. longer term I'll say it won't go below that this time around.

[BullBear52x]

Working on some charts until then here is something to look at

Big picture : dollar

The attachment dollar13-3.png is no longer available

So far the structure in dollar looks very corrective but it can change in a blink of an eye

The attachment Dollar13-2.png is no longer available

GBP/USD

The attachment GBPUSD13.png is no longer available

EUR/JPY best pair to forecast what will other pairs do
Very big picture (massive wedge)

The attachment EURJEN.png is no longer available

The attachment EURJEN2.png is no longer available

XIV : hanging on the line, someone might say it looks like H&S

The attachment XIV13.png is no longer available

Big week ahead guys

Here is my UUP, Sell first ask question later type of deal for me.

[knock]

sell UUP first? Is it intraday play or swing? Shouldn't UUP move up ahead after a short term pullback (likely on Monday)?

Working on some charts until then here is something to look at

Big picture : dollar

dollar13-3.png

So far the structure in dollar looks very corrective but it can change in a blink of an eye

Dollar13-2.png

GBP/USD

GBPUSD13.png

EUR/JPY best pair to forecast what will other pairs do
Very big picture (massive wedge)

EURJEN.png

EURJEN2.png

XIV : hanging on the line, someone might say it looks like H&S

XIV13.png

Big week ahead guys

Here is my UUP, Sell first ask question later type of deal for me.

[daytradingES]

We have closed below the sell trigger level on a Friday close

Yes definitely here is my take

Thanks KeiZai!

[BullBear52x]

sell UUP first? Is it intraday play or swing? Shouldn't UUP move up ahead after a short term pullback (likely on Monday)?

Yes, short term swing, see my zoomed up previous gap resistance zone , Daily is bullish but intraday and swing is sell the rip on my read.

[KeiZai]

Here is my UUP, Sell first ask question later type of deal for me.

It would be sweet to get one more leg up in euro (short-term) I hope u are right (I am short from 1.2982 but 1.302 would be even better entry point )