Cobra's Market View

uempel wrote:Since October 9th market has risen 6.7% Somebody certainly knows the statistics, but to me this seems kind of exceptional, i.e. on the 9th the market was not at some kind of long term low.

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Yep, feels like a blow up. According to a plan?

Does look even STEEPER than the run from April opex to the post May opex top - did not think that was possible - daily bar charts even look somewhat similar.

That is the 4th V bottom this year where we have just ripped higher afterwards (and 6th in the last year).

Very impressive.... but as a reminder - November one ended at Dec opex.... Jan one ended at Feb opex.... April one ended post May opex.... June one ended at August employment (and had a post July opex dip...) and September one ended at Sept opex....

-D

uempel wrote:Looking at that steep green channel and thinking of all the buying going on - my guess is always that it's either A) machines or B) some huge funds which don't want to tell their investors that they missed out. I can't imagine somebody else playing the long side now without waiting for a correction...

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People buying bug out rations or just spending new gained cheap credit.

gappy wrote:

taggard wrote:add on--i have to say people on the board--including my very rare post--seem fairly negative. i have not been reading that much but it seems like the last move up there has been a less positive take than usual on a move of that sort.

Maybe just a lot of skepticism sailing into unknown Ponzi new dynamics. QE pump = fed fear, fear of what? Well yeah, political loss of grip, but this agenda, is a little above and beyond. Conspiracy world now.

it's certainly possible but really looking over the last 2 months everything wound up being what everyone was predicting. (so deal at last second--yellen at fed--and so on). the qe is the same as it has been. amusingly some studies show only 10-40 basis points in the economy from the 85 bill a month--but the key idea is that there is a "unified gov and fed" that wants an up market which is supposed to be main idea.

another view works like this put call on the last two days at the bottom (so prior to reversal bar and reversal bar) featured put call of up to 1.40+ during the day. now all the way down both intra day and closing were nothing exciting. then on the move up we had the same sort of not exciting except for one day (gap up they bot puts to 1.30 i think in first half hour) now the levels are about what you would expect. my point is the market using this model was fairly typical on the decline off the fed announcement into the bottom. the first move up was powered by puts and shorts--many for some reason bot around the 100 ema spy (so under 50 and at 100).

target is within reach

Cobra wrote:members only update at 3:45 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/10 ... ay-update/

THANKS COBRA

well, might be not enough time for the last push up which might not make a new rebound (if time allows, bears finally got some strength). thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

$SPX: Usually an extended move ends with a Triangle or an Ending Diagonal

Taggard thanks for breaking it down.

$SPX: The discussed Ending Diagonal can still pan out

$DOW: I maintain the scenario of a Triangle

$EURUSD: Approaching a s/t top

$EURUSD: Impulsive sequence from Octbober 17

Hey Al D my breadth thrust calc was in error - the ZwBT has triggered today - this is actually the second with the first on Friday - I did a little digging to find out that he used a 10 day ema of adv/adv+dec omitting any unchanged issues so I couldn't use total issues traded and keep to his original work. These are the 5th and 6th BTs of the '09 Bull...Attached chart shows the signals with spx in Keltner channels

$DAX_F: So far bearish bias

$YG_F : Preferred s/t count = DZZ

$ES_F: (Globex) bears are pressing

$CL_F: Maybe price is approaching a s/t bottom

TWT wrote:$ES_F: (Globex) bears are pressing

Pressing but the decline is so far corrective again imo