Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report. Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE. StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
follow up on the downside, so it's a small double top.
Attachments
Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report. Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE. StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Sharing research and ideas only, this is not trading advice.
“If people concentrated on the really important things in life, there’d be a shortage of fishing poles.” – Doug Larson
Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report. Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE. StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report. Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE. StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Sharing research and ideas only, this is not trading advice.
“If people concentrated on the really important things in life, there’d be a shortage of fishing poles.” – Doug Larson
IMO the hardest part of trading is shorting bull markets.
Going long a bull market is easy. Any number of indicators are very reliable in telling you when to go long. I think the reason is that most corrections look the same. They are usually sharp and the rebound is strong. A nice, simple pair of moving averages will be highly reliable.
But tops in equities take two forms. Sometimes they are spiky and other times they form a huge dome. And sometimes that dome doesn't even break down but launches again into a fresh uptrend. So that pair of moving averages that work so well going long gets rocked when trying to short.
My best system for shorting involves a "time duration". I get a sell signal and it is, by default, good for one week (5 trading days). The overwhelming number of shorts using that system make money. Not a lot of money, but its profitable. The next step is to evaluate the market on day 5 because by then, it usually obvious if we've got a large breakdown in several technical indicators (indicating correction) or just a blip. If everything is falling apart, I'm supposed to stay short and ride it down, and then switch to other indicators for my exit. If not much has happened in those first 5 days, just close it out.
I don't always use that particular shorting system though because, well, I've got several systems and something interesting often pops up totally unrelated to that system.
The shorting system I use shows the market has deteriorating fundamentals. It hasn't looked this ugly since 2011. It has not said to short yet tho. Some recent shorting signals came on April 4th, March 21st, January 23rd, November 1st, September 30th, And August 14th.
bearish as of SPY 406 on 2/17/23
currently: end bearish as of SPY 406 on 3/6/23